Racing Analysis

Posted Thursday's Available after 6:30 pm

Final tips on Tommorrow's racing as seen on the home page provided after 6:30 pm the day before.

Sandown: Melbourne

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

Not much speed in this race and I think there is an opportunity for Pete Mertens to send Arthouse across from out wide to sit outside the leader. This will be decisive if he can get there cheaply enough because it looks a slow race on paper. He's a horse who has taken a while to put it together but both his last two runs have been career best with his last run an improvement on what he showed at Sandown previous. I like him to sit outside the leader and race away with this one. Others to consider for the race include Flash coupe and Attrition. Flash Coupe is honest gets the weight concession, performs at this track and can sprint off a slow speed so lots of ticks it's the danger, and third best is Attrition who was very unlucky last start. Thwarted for a run at an important stage and flashed home when it was all over. Has comparable form through Arthouse too. These are the three going around Danzyulym who will be fancied as it looks a horse who really needs the speed on to perform at his best.

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Race 2 :

Going with Somesay here. Excellent effort in strong race at Warrnambool. Had to come from the wrong spot at Warrnambool to figure and did well to finish close up behind Speedymac who burned down the centre of the track. Bian Seen, and the topweight St Trianians are next best. Bian Seen likes Sandown, races on the speed and gives you a sight, the other one is St Trianians. Beat Soaressa well and gave it five kilos on a soft track. That looks terrific form for this. He is one you need to seriuosly consider as well. Going around Pintaka who has terrible form on soft ground.

Race 3 :

Looks a really strong race the Gibson Carmichael with many good horses lining up. General Eisenhower and Zivalee I think are the best winning chances and I think you can works some bets around these two the win. General Eisenhower absolutely crushed a field at Moonee Valley doing it grand style. Extra distance is not a problem. The only way I see him getting beat is if a few of these go forward types soften him up like Down Under Boy and allow horses who look strong to come over the top. The one that strikes me as a horse that will appreciate a fast run 1600m race is Zivalee. It was noted he went home just as good as anything in the strong race won by Emjay Hussay. She can save all her energies on the inside and produced when it matters. Next best I have Protesta from Down Under Boy and Moment of Truth who will appreciate strong speed.

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Race 4 :

Some Are Bent was challenged last start but fought it out strongly to win well at Warrnambool. Not really one for hurdlers but other ones to consider are Transferral on recent form and Conzeal who is capable over the sticks.

Race 5 :

While it's dangerous in a race of seemingly many chances my best recommendation is to back Orange County and Chitabe straight out. Orange County got trapped last start so forget the Goodwood run go on it's recent form and it's very encouraging runs on soft ground. He can win this, the other one who you might consider worth the punt at bigger odds is Chitabe. He might race wide but that's ok. Not a great run last start but he will strip fitter, loves Sandown and should be able to get into the running lane easier than some of the other backmarkers. Dr Nipantuck is third best. Travelled great last start which is a good pointer that he had plenty of work put in for that run, maybe just the high pressure tolled first up for him. He will be better for that and can figure in this race for sure. Ones I'm going around are Chiack who looks awkwardly drawn in one, Watchyerback who takes a run, and Bel Danoro who struggles at Sandown.

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Race 6 :

I think again there are two clear winning chances in the Andrew Ramsden over 3200m. Lacey Underall and Offenbach. Lacey Underall ran a gallant second in the Adelaide Cup last month before having zero luck at a critical stage behind Master O'Reilly. Did as well as expected considering that, she is really a super staying mare but one thing you need to be very careful with her though is she is a dry tracker. If the track is anything worse than a Dead Four I will be putting my money on Offenbach to get the job done. Brilliant efforts at Warrnambool following a luckless race at Sandown where the rider lost his irons in the straight (from memory). Looks a good little stayer in the making. Third best is the gallant stayer Sarrera who went up and did the right thing at Warrnambool winning the Cup. 58kg is a test, but he can really stay and loves a bit of soft ground. Remember just keep an eye on the track if you are keen on Lacey Underall. I've followed her career throughout and she doesn't go as great on soft ground.

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Race 7:

Again another race where there are two horses I like. The obvious is Bellini Rose who's improved into being a pretty formidable galloper and looks very suited here. The other one is Savlate. I'm prepared to forgive that ordinary run last start. Can't find too many excuses, though being caught wide all the way and Moonee Valley are some that you can use. If you saw him third up on soft ground at Sandown over 1600m with a three length win to his name so for this campaign that would be enough to declare. And that's how I'm thinking here. Again will probably back them both straight out. The other one who's an improver this campaing and enjoys its racing at Sandown is Red For Lou. Save room for it in your multiples.

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Race 8:

The last race, again there is some strong horses here but I think we can be more clear cut and work our main thoughts around Amerryking. Though his been up a while this time in, his best run by far was last time out behind Live In Vain. He chased terribly hard after that galloper and really impressed. He's mixed his form a little at Sandown but what's important is that he has looked impressive here before and that's important. I think he can be too good here. Next best is Roubechon, a really good galloper and you could have argued that he should have finished second last start. To me though he kicks bigger than he finishes, and while I can see him looming big time into this I doubt he can finish over the top of Amerryking. Give Caprizzi Strip one last chance as next best if you are taking multiples. The soft track and the opportunity to control this appeals.

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In Brisbane

My two best bets appear in Brisbane with the prospect of a fair racing surface. I really like Imaging in the fillies and mares race and Dracs Back in the Doomben Cup. Imagining has drawn wide but with the scratchings should come into barrier 12 of 20. With Ollie to steer I'm confident JB has improved this galloper even further this campaign and it can run away with this one. The other best bet is Drac's Back. Yes it has to beat two superstars in Desert War and Reigning to Win but I think he can do it. A very precious horse last time in, he became a bit flaky at the end of it and some punters dropped a bit of confidence with him. But trainer Darren Weir said back then he would always be better next campaign and he is a master trainer of stayers. This time in he has shown anything but a horse that wilts under pressure. Great run first up with no momentum, followed by a commanding victory second up. Then he went to the Gold Coast and copped a serious bump that had it catapulting backwards into the field after a really bright start. Most would have given up at that stage, but in a WFA race run helter to skelter he finished the race off the best full of running. I think he's about to explode and I believe it will happen this weekend at Doomben. Desert War will be hard to beat but needs to find his rhythm around a tight turning track, and Reigning to Win too would be better suited at Eagle Farm.

Tim's Top Raters

Drac's Back and Imagining are best bets in Brisbane.

Best of Luck.

Cheers Tim McDonnell.

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