Racing Analysis

Moonee Valley

Exclusive Report 24th May

Form Guides (RSB)

Race 4:

Good race this and it should ensure value. Bit of speed inside and some talent drawn wide. I have come up with WRANGLE QUEEN who looks to get the best run in the race and is the best value. Terribly unlucky horse and as mentioned she is drawn to get a full crack at them, she will be value both win and place totes. GLADWELL should go close here if all is right with the horse. Drawn to get out into the running line, and ook for Williams to be relatively positive on it early. Really likes this track and definitely worth putting in. CENT TO ROME is third best, he hasn't quite been as devastating as he first impressions suggested but hasn't been disgracing himself all the same. Will probably get back and will have his work cut out, but the 1200m at the Valley can work for those coming off the pace with a bit of ability.

Race 5:

Patience might be the key here, they went after JUSTSAY SOMETHINK first up so she must have been showing something on the track, given her first up record reads all donuts for four runs. Her run was quite commendable considering the first three home where the first three in the run. With that run, extra distance and enough confidence to back her first up against a poor first up history suggests she will be ready here. Drawn perfect as well. ONE PERFECT DAY looks next best, has been competitive in two runs from a long spell, drawn well and no weight. Give MISS EVERGREEN one more chance as well. Beaten narrowly last start and had to lump 58kg. Quite a hefty weight for such a small horse. 54.5kg here she is , definitely worth putting in.

Race 6:

Don't mind Wrencher here. This race shapes up perfectly for him on the barrier draw. He's drawn around alot of horses that get back and are having there first-up runs, his direct opposition for the lead is Alexander Bettle who's drawn 11. His pattern is to take the lead, take a breather and then clear out. Wrencher will make sure he earns the lead, and then just come off his back when he steadies as he will have to from that wide barrier. In a relatively slowly run race and dominated from the front the cards are in WRENCHER's favour. KAPHERO definitely shapes as the hardest to beat as he will push up from out wide and make a presence. The weight difference could be key though. 7.5kgs and with Kaphero carrying 58.5kg they can't afford to create too many difficulties for other runners. Third best and along way from the first two is PALACE GENERAL. Won't be far-away and can excel at 1000m.

Race 7:

Don't really know if jockey Sebastian Murphy has figured out how to ride MAUNATRICE. And that's reflected by most of his rides, but over 2040m even if he does take her back you can still get into the race quite well here at the Valley especially this late in the day. The problem with this race however is the distinct lack of speed and those that take it up Donna Rossa, Hargitay are accomplished at putting the brakes on. That being the case this gives them DONNA ROSSA in particular are big chance in this race. Third best and one worth keeping a close eye is DARCARWASHA. Looked really good on debut. Not a race to get really excited about as it works against the ones I like.

Race 8:

Ok we might have a real live one here in LIGHT VISION. Brilliant run last start after being chopped out at the top of the straight he then really flashed to the line. He has favours here. The horses that will be up on the speed will be his main dangers, and don't mind running along. Saliente will lead from Mr Clangtastic and from 4 Light Vision doesn't need to be that far away. I suspect they will go for a rails hugging ride and use the fact that those two mentioned will bring him right into the race. I'm making him a best bet based on this and the ability stranglehold he alson has on these. Some will pot him on his MV record but he has won at tight tracks Mornington, Seymour and Pakenham at this distance range in the past so there is no reason why he can't do it here. I think those two mentioned will be his biggest competition in SALIENTE and MR CLANGTASTIC. But get on Light Vision.

Eagle Farm

Race 7:

Going for value here in tipping HELIDECK. Really based on default more than anything. I think the other prime movers in the race APACHE CAT and VORMISTA have their respective work cut out. APACHE CAT isn't the fresh horse he was in previous runs and doesn't seem to inspire this way of going. That said he is drawn well and is pretty much close to a champion of the turf so I do give him a chance. Just no value backing him around the even money mark even with change. VORMISTA is a horse I really like and was an excellent run first up. This race however apart from the fact she will be fitter doesn't suit one iouta. She's a big track horse, which Doomben is not. She's drawn the carpark and being second up with an eye on the Stradbroke will be snagged back to near last, and there is no pace in the race. To many things against her winning, but she is good enough to run on and sneak a place. That leaves us with the runnaway HELIDECK who has been splitting fields open recently. I potted him last start because I thought he wouldnt be able to use the barrier, well the jockey beat me rode against his pattern and shot him into the death seat. Got a split and raced away. Similar heroics won't be needed here he can sit midfield and make his presence felt. Definite value in the race and might be worth a bet.

Tim's Top Raters

Light Vision Best Bet