Horse Racing Analysis

Moonee Valley

Exclusive Report 12th July

Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1: 10-1-6

Nothing screams out at me of those that have raced in the first, though I should say there is some degree of talent amongst them. But I am very interested in seeing how MISS EVASIVE goes, the very first offspring out of the explosive mare Magical Miss. Do you remember how good she was. So alot of interest in the mounting yard and the betting ring for sure. The Hayes camp backed that Excellent Dancer like it was unbeatable but that went awry, so I wouldn't read too much into the market unless it blows an absolute gail. If she looks right to you it might be worth a speculator in the first. FOOTY LEGEND is next best going on a really good public trial before being turned out. And YESTERDAY the best of the raced. Won an above average 2yo at Bendigo and did it very solidly.

Race 2: 5-3-6-1

Race positioning and speed were the major determinants in the Second at the Valley. On what we have seen or expected you had to build your thoughts around Kindrate who probably should have pushed the good Sanpan last time here. It's seems her best races are when she is ridden cold early and she builds into the race. Barrier one then becomes the issue. There is only fair speed in the race, and furthermore the key to the race is when will Wavelength go on the attack. It's had its two starts back in now, and usuallly fires third up. Its strength is a long sustained sprint. I've got a feeling though, tactically, Chris Symons will know that his threats will be looking for pressure and breaks up front with JUSTSAY SUMTHINK and Kindrate drawn 1,2 and therefore won't be in a hurry to go early and provide it. What I'm getting at is Kindrate is a risk. Justsay Sumthink though drawn low is more versatile, and she can get on the back of the leaders easier and given her good form is the top rater. BROLAGO is next best, she hit her straps last start and one should follow a good mare once in form. KINDRATE third best, you can't lock up something for 1600m she will got some chance though she is a risk at the likely short odds and WAVELENGTH fourth best and definite place hope. Will have the run of the race.

Race 3: 8-7-1

Not keen to play in the hurdle, came up with DOT COM, if its real wet he comes right into it. From THISONESONME who has been steadily improving throughout its current campaign, and the likely favourite HOOKER ROAD who loves the track and was really good over the jumps last start.

Race 4: 10-3-8

PASCO had been doing good things before going down as a top fancy in the Australian Hurdle a few weeks ago, gets its chance to atone. From SHROGGINET who deserves a change of luck and FOXTOWN next best.

Race 5: 9-3-5

I came up with MOCK as the value runner to consider here. Mock's general overall form of recent times has been more than encouraging, and having been saved from the Winter Championship Fatigue looks the way to go here. He's just as effective at Moonee Valley as his recent good form at Flemington. Go with Mock in this. I think SCENIC SILVER is capable of backing up but should be noted his best runs are fresh. He will justify his short quote by at least being competitive but no value at a likely 6-4 quote. HADDLE MACDADDLE is next best. Yet to see the blinkers for this horse which has really spurred him on in the past. But a likely slow track 1600m here still really suits at this time in his preparation so he needs to go in most things you do

Race 6: 4-3-9-8

Very competitive race this and it came down to a matter of splitting hairs in finding the top rater. Going with the mare who is at the peak of her powers - JOONTOO GEMINI. Did a great job last start to stave off Dointhehardyards who had the sit on her. Has drawn a gun barrier in four and whatever the conditions rain, hail or shine will be desperate at the end of the race. JOHNNY KNOXVILLE is the hardest to beat. He finds another leg at the Valley and it takes a pretty good horse to beat him around here. Must Inclusion. DOINTHEHARDYARDS is next best, a strong improving type who does most of his racing on big tracks but has come here before over a distance and been competitive. CORRAGIO is a value horse for multiples. Handles the wet and should get this distance ok. Had the run of the race last start, but I think this track might suit it a touch more (she's only a small horse).

Race 7: *1-6-4

MA SHANG is a best bet here. Found a run last start and exploded to the line beating a very good one in Viking Turf Belle. This is as average a 3yo field you could assemble and the 57kg - 4kg over the minimum is not a bigger enough concern to frighten us away. With Zerpour and Faltaat in the blood lines the step up in distance and the prospect of a rain affected track should be no problem. His form has been top notch from the outset, beat a good one in Thermals first out then , thrashed Commanding Hope and was much too good for Viking Turf Belle. He's drawn absolutley perfectly in six and I expect him to get around Moonee Valley no problems. He'll win by two lengths plus all things being equal. HISSING SID is next best, I was bang on with him last start I think this horse will be a professional placegetter at a high standard. Ran up to win last start but found one better. Will get the run of the race here again and will put himself into the game but won't hold Ma Shang. LIMPOPO LAD impresses but has drawn the wrong gate in two. The 1600m though should give him the time to find a spot to run on. LIVE LIFE TO THE FULL is the query runner a listed winner last time in, needs some respect.

Race 8: 4-8-1-2

Very competitive race the last. All fancies look to have quite a strong hope in this. Those with long memories who backed APPLE LODE last Spring when she came to a good race at the Valley and looked the winner on paper only to dissappoint should be aiming for a square up here. This is her race-track and for her to race so well last start at Flemington augurs well for a very strong run here. She should have won last start after being held up for a long-part of the straight. Should get an affected track and is drawn likely in the spot to be out-wide winding up in the last. Kaphero with the 61.5kg drawn 13, you would think wouldn't be torched early and he will be a great horse to follow in the run for Apple Lode. He's had the wood on her but I think she can turn it around. SENSATIONAL TOY I rate as the hardest to beat. Drawn a great barrier in 10. Has a great weight and returned stylishly last start. One to definitely include. KAPHERO still needs to go in. He's just in dynamite form, has things against for the win but can still be competitive. THREEDEE next best, good win last start, great ride but can be competitive again here with the gun jockey in Brad Rawiller. Apple Lode though is the best each-way proposition on the programme.

Ma Shang is a best bet*

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