Horse Racing Analysis

Moonee Valley

Exclusive Report 26th July

Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1: 7-5-1

Thinking Regally Red is a pretty good bet in this. This race is a bit stretched for red-line talent and Regally Red seems to have the most going into it from what I’ve seen. Distance seems to be the key with him, each run this preparation has been an improver on the one prior and not surprised his last run was his best winning very well at Ballarat. A couple will go forward here Trustus, Tristasun. Regally Red can push forward from three and use a horse like Trustus to bring it into the race. Chase The Tiger, froggy’s ride I rate the hardest to beat. Thought it was a better run than the winner at Kyneton in Milla Rose. Froggy won’t waste the barrier even if it is against the horses pattern a touch. Trustus third best. Good win last start and step up in distance is a big help as I see this one as pretty one-paced. Will keep grinding to the line but will be exposed on the flatter surface here to those mentioned.

Race 2: 7-3-9

Don’t think they will go beserk here but I think there is definitely a horse to bet on. A best bet. Peter Moody’s Biaseal. Looked a million dollars on debut when rolled it into three deep at Colac, got to them easy then just burst away to win by almost 4 with plenty more to give. Didn’t seem to want to idle on the wet ground last start, but when put under pressure responded really well to run second. We want a dryish track here, dead 5/slow 6 absolute worst and I think you can back this with confidence. There is quality in this race but for mine this horse has easily the most scope. Confident he can take the step here, we’ll get good odds too. I think the race should be run to suit as well. Has reasonable gate speed and should track the likes of Commanding Hope and Tranquility Base in the run. These two I view as the hardest to beat. Commanding Hope has drawn deep but should be able to slide across and is a very strong individual. No money at all for Tranquility Base last start and ran accordingly, should have come along from that run however and looms as a big threat in this. Go with Biaseal though – looks to be something out of the box.

Race 3: 1-2-3

Bullecourt was a good winner last start, no reason why he can’t do it again. Viz Vatae is next best had every chance last start but looks competitive here. Third best Johnny Knoxville, loves this track.

Race 4: 12-4-2

Looks a poor 2040m event here, and given the lack of form from the class runners in Clavillo et al. The race looks to be an opportunity for the hard running Sermon. Down in the weights drawn really well, and looked it’s best for a long time last start. Looked a real prospect as a young horse but couldn’t quite deliver on the promise. Has form at this course against some good ones, and I think with maturity in its head can get the 2040m which he looked like getting early on. Excellent engagement in Froggy Newitt who will get him into the right spot and work him over to get the job done. Bolle is next best. The prospect of a relatively good track brings him right into it. Doesn’t grab you as a horse to get this distance, but might be able to sneak it in the way he’s going. Excellent run last time. We Wonder third best. Stuck on really well when they took off like the Cox Plate against it last start. Set it up a little for it but still respect the performance.

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