Racing Analysis

Moonee Valley

Exclusive Report 12th April

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Form Guides (RSB)

Geelong Race 8:

Really like Maunatrice again. We missed out at Sandown because of the weather there. Nice speed in this race through Winsome's Pride and New Year's Eve who won't want to give up there barriers. Maunatrice should slide across and sit on them, and when it get's warm show his real strengths. The more pressure, the more distance the better this horse gets. Three wide all the way last start and still pulled away from two horses in Awawaa and Herajah who have placed since. Just bet up on this.

Race 3:

Go with Swanz here. It's not a great disadvantage to draw wide at Moonee Valley especially over 1600m and with most of his main dangers in front of her she will be given an opportunity to chase. Unlucky last start at a critical stage shapes up as atoning here. Not much between other horses up in the weights 1,2,3 and 5. Blacken is the second tip. Last start looked a hit-out for this and she hit the line well. Drawn probably the best of all in the race and has a claim. Respect. Then Royale Harmony. Good run last start awkwardly drawn though in one for her pattern.

Race 4:

I quite like Cocoa Tycoon here. Not expected to do much second up over a trip last start, and on a bog track which goes against her breeding. Yet she ran on after suffering some interference. Mares going better than expected early in there preparations are worth following up on and that's what should be done with Cocoa Tycoon. Hardest to beat and one to work in your bets is Salute the Storm. Again looked in need of the run last start chasing hard up the Sandown straight. Expect it to turn on a better performance over her right distance and now with the fitness to carry her longer. Rolling Stock and Post Thyme and also ones to watch. Rolling Stock ended up racing up side down last start but still did a good job, she's really performing at the provincials. And Post Thyme has drawn a barrier she can use and finds a track she can wind up on.

Race 6:

Missed the boat on Mr Baritone last start, I prefer him second up and after such a good win first up win not embarrased to jump on now. Looks clearly the one to beat again. Gunfire Messiah is a classy horse who likes the Valley expect him to go well, and Riceman a performer on wet and dry tracks he might be the value runner at odds (expecting punters to leave him today).

Race 7:

Got a feeling we haven't seen the promising Sandton because it's been set for a Brisbane Winter campaign. If that is true the stable would want to see something here and she has the ability to claim these. A winner over a 1000m so don't worry about her over the short journey of 1200. Looks ideal. I do like Sienna Star again. Beaten by a horse who got in the fast lane at Sandown last start, she still hit the line well. And expected a better showing here. Joyese, Red Element and Alytaat are others to consider.

Race 8:

An intimate knowledge of Fire In the Night might have you quite excited here. Similar to last campaign he was nothing special in his first two runs but really got his act together over a favourable distance in the Brielis Hcp at Geelong. Defeated Trick of Light and Co. on that occassion then went on to win the Coongy Hcp. Drawn absolutely perfectly for him in five and has won well at this track before. Assuming that Barlinnie goes to Sydney this is a very good bet in this. Was encouraging enough last start only a length from the winner. I still rate Last Man Out a horse who ran a good fourth here at his only MV start. Super win last start, advantaged by being down in the weights but has drawn wide and will need a good ride to win. Expected to place however. The Wolverine is third best. Might still be one away but in his favour is the rise in distance, extra fitness, last race of the day suiting swoopers, and most importantly a dry track.

Sydney

Race 2: Pago Pago Stks

Like Emperor Bonaparte alot, moves to a distance he can be more competitive in. Like the fact that Jeff Lloyd is back on. Damien Oliver did nothing for it last start. Look for a hard running display down the outside. Not interested in the others this is a horse you can follow here and throughout the carnival.

Race 7: Rosehill Guineas

This looks a race between the reasonably smart precocious 3yos and the 3yo Stayers of the future. Marching, King Da ka, and Arlington I put in the first category, Steel Giant, Largo Lad and Guillotine I put in the second category. Important to this race is the natural leader from NZ Mission Critical who goes well in it's own right. I'm going with Largo Lad again. I swear that this is a good horse, have always said though its not without its nuances, this is no push-button galloper. The tight Rosehill track might turn a few off, but if you look at the 2000m, its quite similar to the Flemington 2000m. Long run to the first turn giving you a chance to settle. Then a small back straight combined with a slow turning long run like Flemington to the straight. He's shown he loses ground on sharp turns getting his big frame around them, but he build up well into the Cadbury Guineas and I can see a repeat performance in the Rosehill Guineas. Last start if you watched closely he raced very green going the Sydney way of going, but thats not him he's quite a mature runner and I expect him to really benefit from that first up run. If you want more evidence to back him on his last run, Guilotine got three lengths on him at the top of the straight, Largo Lad reduced that to a half length. He's the one to be on here. Let's hope most things go his away because you are in for a treat when he gets a chance to perform. Marching, Littoria and Mission Critical are ones I like for the place. Arlington next best.

Tim's Top Raters

Maunatrice today 5:00pm

Best Bet 8.3

Largo Lad 8.2 Best Bet

Fire In the Night 8.2