Racing Analysis

Moonee Valley

Exclusive Report 16th February

VRC Upcoming Events

Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

Quite a funny race to work out speed-wise perhaps On A Promise and Beech Hurst can push up. However it plays, Let Loushe and Jeunyman are going to be hard to beat. Forgive Let Loushe for it's last performance, struck trouble and the speed was prohibitively slow and the front-runners curse was in play again given it was the first at Caulfield. Too good to go around in this field, Jeunyman is a real threat, drawn really good for it, won't get trapped in 5 if it doesn't race in the first couple. Just prefer Let loushe at this stage. On a Promise is next best after performing better than expected first-up and then Skiddaw Peak who was exposed a little last prep, but this is easy.

Race 2 :

This race looks made to order for Saddler's Story. Choc full of horses who like to go foward. Newitt can take a big grip on him and ride it cold and allow the jockeying to take place in front of him. Has the staying power to come over these, appreciates the strath ayr more than other surfaces as well, that I guess is the Xaar (GB) factor. Probably worth putting a few coins on here as there is so many horses who like to go foward. Going again with Fuji Fantasy as the hardest to beat, capable of sitting off them as well, Williams has chosen her over another fancied galloper. She too will appreciate the strath ayr, actually prefers dead ground. Had been building up to that excellent midweek performance and looks the danger here. Not much between Impinge, Nine Wives and Britomart as next best.

Race 3 :

Three very strong chances in this. Tears I Cry, Pinnacles and Spend a Dime. Everything is in each of these horses favour this one is a challenge of pure judgement. In fact how I have written them is the order I am going with Tears I Cry from Pinnacles and Spend A Dime with nothing much separating. Going with Tears I Cry who I think possesses a slightly bigger kick, from Pinnacles who was apparently not ready first up, ran well thoughm, so should be close for this and usually fires in the early part of it's campaign. And then Spend A Dime, this distance range is not foreign to this horse who is always around the mark in good races.

Race 4 :

This is a match race for mine. Catalan Bay v Absolute Glam, you can take the field for third. Enormous first up run from Catalan Bay, just as good as her first up run last campaign when she beat Patasi by two lengths. Childs rode her for luck after missing the start and sweated on runs and followed Absolot Glam home last time - went home just as good. And most would have witnessed how well she flashed home. Form has held up out of that race with Viv Spirit and Centexpress last week. Last time these two met here was over a similar distance where Catalan Bay worked pretty hard up front but was still too good for Absolute Glam who was conceeding weight to her. Absolute Glam will be 2.20 in this race, there will be an avalanche for her. But she will have to catch a fresh Catalan Bay. Sticking with the Bay, from Ab Glam who is good around this distance range and it was a stunning first up win. As suggested no clear opinion on third, Arapaho Miss from 2 not keen. I've stated before I'm not that keen on Miss Marielle around here. So a roughy for third maybe Skye Gold.

Race 5:

This is not hard if Light Fantastic is any good she can win this for sure. I don't really rate the favourite Gibraltor Campion her grinding fourth at Caulfield sticks in my mind too much, she looked average there but was good enough to come out and beat the open horses. Weird but happy to side-step her. Going again with Arcadia for second is way over-due and the knives will be out if it doesn't perform here. This is not hard. Third best, Pit Lane. Has ability but got exposed a little against the cream last campaign, but is good enough against this lot to compete well. The 1200m is ideal.

Race 6 :

This looks a crack Alister Clark. Schilling drawn one, will Newitt try and lead? Playwright 1600m we are going to find out today. It failed in the Bill Stutt last campaign, but has come back stronger. Sound Journey, terrific horse over-raced and sweated up badly last start, but fought on excellently. Zagreb looks a horse, and Raffaelo showed excellent speed to win at Sandown. Not getting off Sound Journey yet. I think it might pay to treat it's last run as an abberation, as it was the model racehorse in it's first prep, if anything a touch on the lazy side. The key to this race is who leads and pressure. Newitt will push up from one and may try and take the lead, having a look through General Eisenhower's form I dare say if they want to see a return to form he might lead. Other's to go foward include Brom Brom and Vailidator. In my eyes a lot of deadweight going foward - so Newitt leading or not is extremely important to the outcome. We are hoping he doesn't lead. If horses come from out wide to take it up that goes well for us, we want to see and it should happen Sound Journey snagged back to the tail. Any pressure and a back of Raffaelo or Zagreb is all we'll need and Sound Journey can run right into this race. They put up six dollars in early markets I think we'll get a touch better than that. Probably with the books. Schilling I rate the hardest to beat, incidentally there was nothing between there work at the Valley midweek. And then Zagreb. Should go better drawn a touch out. Williams can attack on him if he wishes. I sense a few jockeys will be Schilling concious here.

Race 7:

I like two in the Australia Stakes and I'm going to back them both straight looking for a result. Apache Cat and Tan Tat De Lago. Apache Cat was excellent first up, and really expected to go even better here over 1200m. The two draw initially looked akward but with Dance Hero in the field and a positive Corey Brown I think it can sit in the death one back the rail. It needs too. Apache needs to wind up to do his best. But this is perfect for the horse, the pace will be on and Dance Hero will provide the perfect bunny. The only horse capable I think of beating him or doesn't let him win is Tan Tat De Lago. Classy winner of the Ascot Vale, speared away from Scenic Blast and Purrealist who are regarded high. More than that she is a runnaway winner at this course, adept at this distance, and the fact the Pete Moody was shopping around where to run her suggests he has her up to the mark first up. Next best is Stanzout, from Miss Finland and Arevalo (150-1).

Race 8:

Again think there are two strong chances with Game Serena and Illinois Girl in the Sunline Stakes. They are the two and with a fitness demand going through punters minds at the moment we might get reasonable prices given they are only second up over 1600m. Game Serena has been set for the race according to the trainer and I dare say it was on the mind of Illinois Girl's trainer when it ran on better than expected first up. This race on paper should fall there way too with Wavelength likely to break this race open. I expect Laura's Charm to take the race on at the start, and Wavelength try and break them mid-late race. This will set it up for the swoopers Illinois Girl and Game Serena. Game set and Match Serena let's hope. Not much in them still rate Game Serena highly, heaps of money for her first up but there was no speed on for her to get too close, she finished off well in the last 50m. Illinois Girl is the horse on the rise and very hard to beat. Then Wavelength who will ran a tough race and Paralegal next best.

Race 9:

Belcentra is very smart and this is not strong. The betting early will probably tell the story as she might not be flat-out for this. Antartic Miss will be hard to beat, good horse can use the barrier and Fearless Waters is probably the value runner of the day. Drawn wide, like that for her, she's been racing well, at unsuitable tracks, and is super fit. Has the La Chassuese recipe to win this.

Sunday Kilmore Cup

Two to follow...

Osvaldo race 6 no 5

Have been waiting for this horse. Good win at Sale, followed by a very unlucky second to Teskara at Geelong and then taken out of business when favourite at Mornington. 1100m is short enough for it, but he's got much more ability than these and is favoured by a mid draw as he get's back in the field. Well worth a strike first up.

Roman's Image race 7 no 13

Best from the video last week in a sizzling race won by Seafarer. Trucked home fast on the inferior rail but made up many lengths and would have been set for this race with a light weight. Suited by the uphill Kilmore finish. Will get back but will rattle home.

Tim's Top Raters

Sorry No Best Bet's This Week!

But plenty suggested bets below

Sound Journey 8.2

Catalan Bay 8.1

Roman's Image 7.7

Osvaldo 8.1

Apache Cat/Tan Tat De Lago 8.3

Of the the other top raters I rate them in this order of choice...

Game Serena (strongest)- Saddler's Story -Let Loushe - Fearless Waters - Light Fantastic -Tears I Cry (weakest)