Racing Analysis

Moonee Valley

Exclusive Report 28th September

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

Trust Greg Childs in this on Pentiffic, he's a very good rider of stayers. This horse is improving and getting better everytime he steps out. Showed a bit of dash over the 2400m last start so he looks up to winning this. Quite a serious horse and got more upside than these. He looks the way to go in the first. Should get each-way odds.

Race 2:

Dan Duchess trialled well not much to say for the rest...so won't waste your time with this race.

Race 3 :

Beaming was a very encouraging winner on debut. Took over early for home and kept running well to the line when you would have expected her to get tired. Beat a decent one in Marlee's Star so I'm expecting her to come here and show off her talent against these. Nuclear Force is probably the one you need to most respect. She's second pick and Belcentra will be well fancied and she puts herself into a race well but I would like to take her in this company, prefer the other two.

Race 4 :

Lots of speed here, but it's a 1000m scamper so you wouldn't expect anything different and don't be suprised if Green Mankini wins this from off the pace. Was challenged at Moe and then just broke away like a good thing. The horse that run third that day has since come out and won so there's form there. Before last start he raced in good company at Caulfield and didn't get much room to show his best. Start prior he beat home Viatorian. With lots of speed, and a fair few that will get back, racing midfield looks a snack and that's where Green Mankini should lob in this field and from there can be very damaging. Danny Brereton will suit the horse in this field he won't push it along too hard at the start. Looks his race. Consider Copious and Vivacious Spirit for minor roles, and go around Tease Me...preferred over longer.

Race 5:

In The Shadows is the horse you want to be on here, and Brad Rawiller I suspect will ride him from midfield or worse. Should be enough speed here with Hunter Hermiatage and Saliente engaged along with many others, which augurs well for backmarkers. Over 1600m you will get your opportunity from back in the field and with a 1900m win under his belt one should feel confident with In the Shadows here. Word got out that he'd missed a run in his lead to last start so were buttering up here to get more out of him this time. Test Fire, Gunfire Messiah and Heavenly Pun look the hardest to beat.

Check out Pre-Post Stutt, JRA Stks & Caulfield/Melbourne Cup betting below

Race 6 :

The speed in this race is anyone's guess they typically run along well though in the JRA. Who knows what Activation will do? The blinkers fired him up last start, so if they are removed we may seem a calmer horse. Maldivian may lead this field and he along with Master O'Reilly look the main hopes with Field Hunter and Lazer Sharp looming as the blousers. I find it hard to bet in this race, Maldivian probably, Master O'Reilly less likely. Field Hunter is consistent and Lazer Sharp needs speed on and I think he's best is on a dry track. You can probably talk yourself out of Lazer Sharp because if there is speed on it's hard to see him second up over 2040m winning. Maldivian with the 56kg only then.

Race 7:

The Stutt Stks. Looks like most of the fancied horses will race in the first crew so two things we can draw from this. is A. Those horses will get every chance, and B. You will want to be ridden well if coming off the pace. So on face value Pillar Of Hercules, Murtajill, and Antartic Miss have that advantage on Puerto Banus. He might have there ability but around the Valley and with most of the good ones too far away to drag him into the race I'm happy to go around him in this. Wait for Flemington. Of the trio I like Pillar Of Hercules. Super win last start. Catalan Bay ran fifth to him last start and franked that form midweek with a strong win. Murtajill and Antarctic Miss will try and make it a sit and sprint and fair enough, but over 1600m class catches up with no matter how slow you go...and suspect they want hold the HERC.

Race 8:

Straws Lane is the one that should capture your thoughts here...what to do from 14? This race is not full of sprinters...so with Mr Moxie a natural front runner drawn just inside, I'd say the plan will be to follow him across and try and sit second in the run. If backing look for that and on his last run you will be doing it with alot of confidence. Very unlucky, hit the line great in a very good race at Seymour. Has always looked a talent and his small frame will suit Moonee Valley to a tee. Very much warming to him in the last. Dangers. Mr Moxie will get a good run, and Real Assay. Will be well back but should be streaming home.

Tim's Top Raters

Best Bets for the weekend In The Shadows , but like alot of the top raters.

Saturday: I like Bowlabouncer at Seymour in the second was going better than Bird of Fire on the line.

Sunday: My Viatorian clashes with Weekend Hussler, one things for sure we'll get good place odds with the Hussler cramping that form of betting too. Thinking we might get $3 Viatorian the place and that will be enough for me, great win last start, Dane The Rave has come out and won since. Sandown is very suitable the longer the better for Viatorian. He may not beat the freak but he'll pressure the best out of him.