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Racing Analysis

Flemington - Caulfield - Moonee Valley - Sandown - Rosehill - Randwick - Warwick Farm- Canterbury - Eagle Farm - Doomben - Morphetville - Cheltenham
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Moonee Valley
Exclusive Report 28th July
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Form Guides (RSB)
Race 1:
Tan Tat De Lago will have her hands full with a few of these but is still the top rater. Fought on brilliantly last start after being headed and caught on an inferior part of the track at Werribee. Strong wins prior, winning form is good form and looks again a big show in this. Respecting a Rock of Gibraltor youngster in Just for Rock here for second pick. Showed improvement last start on his debut run and looks like going on with it in this...a danger. Laspiel should be strong at the finish. Made a powerful sprint when it was all over in a strong race at Geelong. Finished well back in races prior but being out of Singspiel you can overlook those ones.
Race 2 :
I like Grand Duels here to beat the Moonee Valley specialist in Spectacular Saint. While Spectacular Saint will be at it's peak now, I think he is exposed to something strong finishing over the top of him and Grand Duels has that ability to produce that kind of performance. Strolled in before holding Spec Saint in comfortable fashion last start. I think he can go on with it here. Moonloushe is third best. He was a horse going places before he was put out to mature from his first campaign. Likely to get back, but is very capable of rattling home.
Race 3 :
Terrain gets the nod again, was put under pressure last start in its first run over the sticks and dealt with Johnny Knoxville with disdain. Shrogginet and Hasta Manana will be more formidable opponents but I like him to get the job done. Keep in your thoughts Shrogginet's misfortune last start when a horse ran him off the track in front of him during his last race here around the Valley.
Race 4 :
There is three main winning hopes in this each with there own claims. Fivecougarsthanks is the horse I have the most time for and the one I am making the top rater. Should have won two starts ago at Mildura when it flashed home from the tail, and made a real impact last start winning by six at the same track. Looks the goods and worth following in this. The hadest to beat is Mollys Folly, who was terribly gallant in defeat last start. Shouldn't have to deal with such a hot speed, and can make an impression again in a race and at a track she is very effective at. Bella Princess is the other horse racing well at the moment, but is only a place chance for mine with a barrier draw of two. She's not quick enough to make use of that barrier and it will turn out to be more a hindrance than help.
Race 5 :
There's many here in good form who can stake claims, but I'm forgiving Little Baldy's failure last start, I think he can do better things from a wide draw than a low number. Will be odds and worth a ticket. High Costalana showed a return to form is imminent with his close-up fourth last start, I see him going on with it here and being a big threat. Hunter Hermitage is a chance again that was a strong win last start. It has to repeat that performance though to be competitive again. Hillston Exchange, Incentate and Rubiscent are others with chances but I would need to see decent odds to be tempted. Unlikely, go for a bit of an upset here.
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Race 6 :
The weights are too compressed to sell out Some are Bent in the Hiskens. No reason to suggest he can't win this. His biggest threat I believe is Kingston Scene. Very impressive winner at Sandown before falling over last start. Only horse that can threaten the topweight. Clearview Bay will be ridden cold and saved for one last run. He's the smoky but third best.
Race 7:
Don't go around the obvious in this one. The lightweights are simply not good enough to challenge the class runners who are going extra well at the moment. In the peak of form are Saliente, Baughust and Istsa Kareem. Saliente a terrific winner last start and no reason why it can't repeat that run, Baughurst was left to do too much last start but was far from disgraced last start, it's run was just as good and I think it can turn the tables. The big danger horse is Ista Kareem who was the best run in the Winter Championship. Better known over these distances but there are a one or two more doubts with him over the others, perhaps a win only proposition.
Race 8:
Topweights for the Last! Lord Braemar ,Any Suggestion and Threedee are the ones I'm giving most consideration too. It's well documented the unluckiness surrounding Lord Braemar's last start run, while that's a basis for a pretty weak argument to back him, his competition isn't strong so with a combination of small ticks he gots the nod. He will likely be under the odds as he'll trap alot of interest though. Any Suggestion just about needs a bullet, but I'm giving it one last chance. One or two excuses last start, with the winners of that race coming from the inside section of the track, while Any Suggestion tracked a wider course. Might be worth one last shot! And Threedee who goes great guns here at the Valley and can pull out a run first up.
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Tim's Top Raters
Race |
Horse |
1 |
Tan Tat De Lago |
2 |
Grand Duels |
3 |
Terrain |
4 |
Fivecougarthanks |
5 |
Little Baldy |
6 |
Some are Bent |
7 |
Baughurst |
8 |
Lord Braemar |
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Tan Tat De Lago and Grand Duels are best bets, while not crazy about them they are still the best for the programme.
Best of Luck,
Cheers Tim.
Best of three totes available below with both bookies!
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