Racing Analysis

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Moonee Valley

Exclusive Report 25th August

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

Tricky start going for the in-form mares. Mixxer was an excellent run last start after collecting it's first win at Werribee the start before. She was scratched midweek for this so the camp must be confident. As mentioned excellent run last start when made ground upon the inferior part of the track. Has been consistent and gets its chance to win this. Magic Tori looks the hardest to beat. Beat a better field last start, but did win on the back of an awesome ride so keep that in mind. Might have to do a bit more work to win this I have her second best. Snow Flight showed plenty last start defeating Sefrah. Prefered over this trip and with the dry tracks appearing her form may just be going hand in hand. Likes this track too. These are the three for mine.

Race 2 :

Pins On Parade what a weapon this is. Have looked at this race up-side down and at every angle and I don't think he can lose. Just Kidding, but think he will either sit outside Heart or be one out one back depending on the speed of Husson Lightning. Either way he will get his chance to show his immense talent. Heart will definitely bring him into the race, her wins have been top shelf and she will be in it for a long way. But unless Pins On Parade races imaturely he'll grab these and run away. Think we'll get solid black figures too...they will back a few in this. Heart will be the hardest to beat I rate his wins highly. Then Davcon and Down Under Boy who both will need good speed to produce a boilover. Can't see them torching each other in front however. Hard to split those two.

Race 3 :

Spanish Symbol is back to the scene of the crime, don't have much interest here but he will be hard to beat given that he is only 5kg over the minimum against some pretty slow ones.

Race 4 :

Very competitive race the fourth. Royal Asscher was merciless first up at Caulfield. Attacked the line with real power...she looks back. I fancy she will win this, but there are some good ones to test her. Volcada, La Goule and Downhill Racer are the threats. Volcada has a bit of scope and looks the most dangerous, La Goule looks a professional little race-horse and looks one definitely to put in all multiples...place bet looks a requirement on her. Downhill Racer is the other one. She will get back, and it's unsure whether she will handle the Valley. She's very game and honest though and if they go mad out in front she could beat them all. That said, I still think Royal Asscher is the one here, was enormous last start and is proven at this track before. Drawn perfectly too...just roll your POP winnings into her.

Race 5 :

Follow the Pro's in this. I like the professional 1200m mares in this over the younger ones who are preferred over more ground. They are just too good over 1200m here to dismiss and I think Miss Evergreen and Sunshine Power look the likely speed, and despite few races at this distance at the Valley being controlled over 1200m recently, this shapes up as the exception. Very hard to split these two but the 1200m makes me favour Sunshine Power just. 1200m is Miss Evergreen's limit and I just feel first up there is slight vulnerabilty there. I figure Sunshine Power after a long break and a good space between races she is ready to fire for this. Though beaten out of sight first up, she did enough for me in the slop and against a bias. Can see her controlling this on the firm ground and being very hard to beat. Still think Miss Evergreen is dangerous. She eats the Valley, as seen in all her runs and she is very good fresh. I think though they would have preferred to run her in a 1100m event first up...that's the reservation. Next best is Dyna Myta, did enough first up performs on all surfaces and I think she will fire today as well.

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Race 6 :

Like Here De Angels to win the McEwan trophy over the hotpot Gold Edition. Gold Edition will be set along to the lead because that's where her competitive advantage lies, Here De Angels will either sit outside it or a length off in second, guaranteed. So where do you go from there. At the Valley I think you are at an advantage sitting on the outside of the speed than creating it on the rail. That said and the fact that this is Here De Angels playground - The Valley - I much prefer to back him. He'll be stunning and too good for the filly I'm predicting. Any prepost 4-1 or better should be snapped up and even worth an eachway ticket. In Gold Edition's favour she has a great fresh record looked good in a trial Tuesday at the course and likely to run another great race. Ticklish is third best.

Race 7:

Don't like this race. Moonloushe and Haddle Macdaddle to me look the main winning hopes on paper. I don't think they will go all that fast and I think that brings topweight and clearly the best horse in the race Falstaff right into it too. My preference for Moonloushe sways me his way, I admit though the four week break is a slight query and a slowish pace may not be totally favourable for a horse who get's well back. That said I still fancy his ability over most of these and for that reason will stick with him. To me this looks a race where it might be a good idea to back a few straighout and hope to get the winner in two or three, Haddle Macdaddle was a different horse in blinkers last start and with the prospect of being on the speed in a slowly run race things look favourable for a repeat performance. Falstaff is their with a winning hope too. A classy horse in a slowly run event, is always dangerous. Ollie will figure that out and ride him forward from out wide, and his good fresh record and his WFA winning form makes you sit up and take notice. My advice is to back all three straighout, adjusting for your confidence on all three.

Race 8:

Going for Snappy Tom to win the last. Attacked the line like no other run before last start he might be a late improver. Has form this track and distance, in a wide open race I like him.. Serene Prince a good last start winner and always a prominent player at this track is next best. Should be hard to beat. Eclair Passion is a push button sprinter who I really like and with the prospect of a dry track is in his favour, just not sure about him in a hustle and bustle sprint at Moonee Valley. Terrific runs in group company last campaign running some slashing thirds. There's no Haradasun's in this, but just third best for mine.

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Tim's Top Raters

Straight out of my favourites list...Barlinnie tomorrow at Seymour in the last is a best bet and Pins On Parade in the second. Barlinnie meets moderate opposition tomorrow first up, this is a bit of gun horse when he can control a race. Drawing wide is most favourable...Luke Nolen will no doubt drive him to the lead or sit outside and be held up for one sprint. Back him and Pins On Parade who looks a star and you should be having a pretty good one.

Best of Luck,

Cheers Tim.