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Home > Over The Odds Review 4th October

 

 

Sydney & Melbourne Racing

From the Bookies Ring, with Graham Tew, Director of new Darwin Corporate Bookmaker - Over The Odds.

Syd 1

Our Joan of Arc – 21
Horizons – 2.3
Come Hither – 7-6

Not much interest in the first race in Sydney with a lack of disclosed trial form.

R2

Real Saga – 5
Winter King – 6-3.5
Onemorenomore – 9.5

This winner blew sharply in the betting, but it was no doubt a pleasing win for it’s gentleman owner, one Vince Aspinall. There was an avalanche of money for the second horse the likes of which is rarely seen for first start two year olds. It would have been ugly had it got up.

R3

Montana Flyer – 7.5-6.5
Drumbeats – 13-11
Silent But Deadly – 6.5-6

Snow Alert ran a very solidly backed fav at 1.95, but after being ridden on the speed today, capitulated quickly at the top of the rise. A good result with the winner being backed for nothing significant.

 

R4

Lorne Dancer – 5-4.4
Riva San – 4.2-3.9
Ice Chariot – 6.5-5.5

Riva San was by far the worst result here, and while chasing hard the winner had enough in hand. Dealer Principal was very well supported (4.40) but was never a threat. A nice result for the bookies even though the winner was a shortener.

R5

Samantha Miss – 1.55
Portillo – 18
Kimillsy – 20-17

This winner is becoming costly, and against the females it seems she can virtually be ridden any way the jock decides. BAD result here....memo to self: pull your head in with this one Samantha Miss is more than good.
 
R6

Sousa – 8-7
Predatory Pricer – 4.6
Excelltastic – 10-8

Fight & Defend was 7.0-5.0 fav and Stalingrad was 9.5-6.5. Couple that with plenty of support for Predatory Pricer and the winner proved to be a handsome result for the bookies in the Spring Champion Stakes. The winner Sousa was superb, and the tactics from Pete Snowden while brave were spot thinking that this one will win again.

R7

Newport – 41
Bianca – 6-4.2
Get Up Jude – 15-12

A blow-out for punters in the Metropolitan where all the interest surrounded the top three, Bianca, Red Lord (4.4-4.2) which was a rank failure, and Fiumicino (6-4.8) which never seriously looked like winning. The winner was backed at long odds with us at Over The Odds during the week in the Caulfield Cup – perhaps I should have read something into it – it's easy in hindsight isn't it !

R8

Theseo – 11-10
Bank Robber – 8.5-7.5
Gallant Tess – 12-9.5

History is a great guide to feature races in Australia, and in saying that we are usually referring to horses. But how many Epsoms did T J Smith win before his daughter picked up the baton and started running? Raheeb ran fav (6.0-4.8) and seemed to have every possible hope. Musket (7-5.5) ran our worst but never got in it. A Star Throughbred quinella here with Bank Robber proving he saves his best for Randwick and Theseo proving he's pretty good.
 
R9

Fritz Princess – 8
Hot Danish – 5.5-5
Keen Commander – 15

The Pumper to the rescue with a well-timed finish here as the punters swooped on smart mare Hot Danish. But Typhoon Zed was by far our worst when it was 6.50-4.40 and while hitting the front topping the rise, there was a swarm of horses coming both sides. A bookies result here.

R10

Neroli – 8-6
Lustre Lady – 7-6
Vecchia Roma – 12-10

A blunder here for administrators with the last in Brisbane clashing with the last in Sydney (any thought to perhaps delaying Sydney for two minutes so that punters could re-invest) What money we did hold here we managed to keep. Miss Pageantry (8-7.5) and Nediym’s Dream (8-6.5) flopped.

 

Melb 1

Noesis – 3.9-3.8
Dancescape – 4-3.8
Intrigued – 12

Again a lack of interest here due a lack of disclosed trial form.

R2

Miss Scarlatti – 21
Wookah – 6-5.5
Larry’s Never Late – 9

Paddy O’Reilly (4.6-4.2) was the best backed here, but it never really got into the race. The first two were handy throughout and it put a whiff of leader bias in the air.

R3

Tindal – 3.6-3.5
Heart Of Dreams – 5-4.8
Bhutane Dane – 3.2

The whiff was becoming more like a stench after Tindal led all the way. The favs ran 1-2-3 and it wasn’t a very nice result each way.

R4

Light Vision – 5
Baughurst – 7.5-7
Zavite – 9

Gee, were these place getters virtually the three in the run? Moatize had plenty of admirers, but NONE of them admired Oliver’s ride. Leader bias has now been confirmed and unattractive racing the order of the day.

R5

Jabal Tarik – 6
Largo Lad – 4.2
New Spice – 5-4.2

Sorry, no prizes for guessing where the winner came from here, but the second horse’s effort Largo Lad was exceptional. Has anyone got a plausible explanation for why Pacino wouldn’t have been ridden handy given the conditions? Sorry, I forgot, the jockey’s generally aren’t paying much attention……….Good result here because I put my foot on the winner, and let others take him on.

R6

Bellini Rose – 9.5
Absolut Glam – 2.7-2.5
Viking Turf Belle - 21

Mimi Le Brock (5.00) was a rank failure which attracted plenty of support. The winner sat just behind the pace and manged to outgun the fav. A result here for us with Absolut Glam well backed.

R7

Gallica – 10-8.5
Cats Whisker – 13
Sparks Fly – 7.5

Romneya (3.1-2.9) was heavily backed despite the obvious hurdle (the bias) and it definitely brought it undone – wait for another day. This wasn’t the winning result it may appear because we did run into the winner Gallica 10's into 8.5.

R8

Littorio – 9
Master O’Reilly – 61
Zipping – 81

STRIKE UP THE BAND AND BREAK OUT THE CHAMPAGNE! Just two weeks ago I lamented that Weekend Hussler had the happy knack of lobbing with the run of the race and flopping in by half a length. I nearly fell off my chair when Tony Brassell announced on Sky this morning that the champ was such a wonderful steed that he could be placed anywhere in his races and still win. Apparently three wide mid-field on a leader-biased track was NOT one of those places. For me not gone for the Cox Plate, but it would be plain greed to continue on with a Cups campaign in my opinion.

R9

El Cambio – 8.5
Swick – 16
Murtajill – 7.5

Poor result here with the punters striking on the first and third horses here in El Cambio and Murtajill. Grand Duels (8.5) had every chance but was run down in a very tight finish. Swick may have been unlucky, but it would not be the first time.

R10

Sea Battle – 3
Rockpecker – 5.5
Here De Angels – 7-5

Black-out in the last when the winner had the absolute last shot at Rockpecker and prevailed narrowly. The Qlder, Rampant Lion (14.0) had plenty of fans at Doomben on-track but it was never a chance. Playwright was catching caps.

 

 

 

 

 

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