Horse Racing Analysis

Flemington: Melbourne Cup

Exclusive Report 4th Novemeber

Race 1: 1-6-7-10

Danscape looks a good type bumped into a speedster on debut. Should be better for the experience and be hard to beat. To be honest haven't done much work on this race the value is available later in the day - and I've used most my energies around the Melbourne Cup. Just watch this one for future reference.

Race 2: 6-14-17

The key to Permission To Land I feel is the affected soft tracks and with Moonee Valley's camber I think that explains why she performed so well there. It was a good run, she has that kind of performance in her. She can repeat here, luckily for her at worst she will receive a dead 4 track , as that is how its prepared in the morning, obviously if there's more rain around like at the moment the confidence begins to soar a little - definite big threat - will be well found in the betting though. Keeping Score if it had drawn a barrier I would have tipped it for first, I like the horse you can understand why they tried her in good distance filly races as a 3yo because she relaxes so well. If they bet silly odds I recommend something on her eachway, probably a good place bet. Tijuana was ridden poorly last start and probably needs a decent track but she is well into the race on ability, don't forget her. Other chances are Zilzie, Game Serena, Origami Miss who I have selected for third, Sacha Royale and O'tobefamous.

Race 3: 9-15-13-6

Another race we probably shouldn't be breaking the bank to play in but I think I've found the key runners and chances to the race. Courtney is the top rater. Nice and relaxed stayer who showed daring tactics at Mornington, which suggested to me they haven't got any issues in getting ground. Last start it was ridden a touch off the pace and was good enough to come away at Seymour. Nice chance in this race. Phaze Action has been racking up the miles, but he finally gets a big track and if the sting is out of the ground he can handle that as well and looms as a top hope. Neugine is one you can definitely put in. Is learning to win, excellent wins at Kyneton and Kilmore. He's going well, and sticks on like glue. Other horses to consider are Chantal Sally will appreciate the drop in grade and she did more than enough in the Geelong Cup, very tempted to upgrade her and well worth a bet straighout in this - might be just too good. Dandaad goes well. And perhaps The Sportsman.

Race 4: 5-10-6-11

Really quite like Jewelled Gate (8.15) in this. Handles all tracks and finishes of her races like a train, suprised they bet what they did last start - I couldn't find much wrong with her demolition of a Rosehill field the start before. She's drawn a gate where she doesn't have to be last, easily the top rater in this. I like Sensational Toy here if they run her. Lots of decent horses have drawn low and she will get the soft drag of those from the four barrier. She looks hard to beat in this down in the weights. Respect Neroli who will use the barrier, and Hanna Rossa who has a very good turn of foot and had to make ground last start off a pretty slow speed.

Race 5: 2-10-5-4-12

Very hard to tip against Aichi in this. Put simply he went home as well as Sunburnt Land (who should have won the Salinger) at Caulfield maybe even better, beat Time Thief in a group 2 down the straight, and was more than competitive in Sydney beforehand. He's better than these. Weight isn't bad and barrier is not a nightmare. I don't mind a few in this but they have drawn low and they generally go down the outside. I'll just mention them anyway - That's A Fact and Al's Best Mate. They might go down the inside anyway given the speed down there and over a 1000m why waste the energy cutting across to the outside rail. Others to consider are Penny Banger, winner down the straight, good horse and Seeking Attention - might be able to sneak a place at odds.

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