Horse Racing Analysis

Flemington: Oaks Report

Exclusive Report 6th November

Race 1: 4-5-10-11

With the inside section racing quite well on Cup Day, I guess it confuses punters more in which side will be the best here, over the 1100m with such a big field I dare say they will split in to two fields. The Sydney siders have favoured well with their draws because they will be able to get on to the leg they are comfortable with coming down the outside rail, so that's important. I've settled on Interfere as I feel she might be a touch stronger than the flying machine Disciplined on the line. When turned loose last start she looked really quite good Interfere and looks a pretty good way to go in this. Beaming I rate as the hardest to beat. She seems to handle all going and was quite good first up last time. If there is any money for her I suggest to follow - the 1100m at Flemington looks suitable first up. Disciplined next best, should jump straight on the outside rail will run a huge race and be tough to beat on her Sydney work. Falvelon's Dream I found as best of the rest as she will be advantaged by coming off the speed down the outside rail - and might get a good drag into the race.

Race 2: 16-3-13-7-6 (Vigor, Instructor Scr)

Really like this race think we can make some money on this one. Speed is very important here and with Acosta and Mufasa in the field with Vigor the speed could be quite good. If that's the case there might be a roughie at big odds worth throwing something at in The Fonz. A City performer who had been restricted to racing on the provincial scene to gain form, he looked to be back to his best last start when thundering down the outside when given an opportunity. If he gets the speed he needs with the lightweight I think he can win. There is serious competition in this race and we need to respect Instructor who is absolutely flying. Did it easily first up and had no luck at a track not really suitable last start, but still managed to flash home. He's tough enough to handle the 57kg and the 1800m is not a worry. Geyser Peak is another one who will run a big race in this. The 1800m is what he's been looking for, and will get a much easier run from two than last start. Extremely hard to beat down in the weights. Vigor again will be hard to beat the step up in distance is in his favour, excellent win last start and will be all over the finish as well. The last horse who demands attention is Raeburn who probably should have gone very close at Caulfield. Freedman has this one ticking along well, if he can handle the pressure in the race he too will be right there. Good race for multi's this one, you can put faith in all those horses.

Race 3: 11-6-3-1-8 (Ampho Power Scratched)

Sticking to my guns on one here in Ampho Power. Was three wide with no cover when they put the foot down at the 600m last start, didn't get around the home turn great, was passed by a few in the straight but then started to pick them up again on the line. This horse caught my eye early on and she has ability. There's a Sydney Cup winner in her bloodlines and she gives the impression she wants a little further. Out of Desert Sun I prefer to back these on top of the ground so will be wanting a decent track here, believe this one has ability and I will be having a decent shot at the good odds in this. 3 winners have already come out of maiden win, that she won running away - looked great in doing it. Liked the performance of Climatic last start, the awkward draw is the only negative because I think they will want to race on the pace with her - given that her strengths lay in her fighting ability. Mine Game next best. Will start short and that's fair enough has real ability, last race really went her way as she takes a while to get into top gear and may have struggled if Ballerina Girl didn't put the foot down early. She will just need a touch of speed, which she might get and she will be well into the finish. Breeding suggests she is good chance of handling the extra ground. I like Purple real tough horse she's fourth best then Ta Ta for Now who if can get the lead will give a big sight, sticks on well.

Race 4: 4-9-7

Didn't want to be on this smart one Olanana last start and that was proven correct, jumping back on here down the straight. She is quite a big mare and will enjoy racing down the straight again where she beat Wilander comfortably. If they get stupid with the price and Tigresque is unwanted in betting she could be the bet in the race. Really tough little horse who will appreciate this race first up, the 1200m will alow her to wind into her work. With such an average campaign you think the Hayes Camp will be trying to knock of everything possible at the death of the Spring Carnival, so I'm thinking she would have been prepared for this. Anything could fill out the trifecta, I came up with Yesterday just because she has a touch of class about her.

Race 5: 9-5-10

Laletta looks to have a strangle hold on the Greys race. She beat a very very strong field at Geelong last start where she had to be used early and then toughed out and beat Woodwin, with horses like Invinciblekindness and Big Daddy Cool in her wake. Good draw, good weight good horse! Monsier Feraud looks suited by this race second up and looms as a chance in this race, good draw in five. Banksdale I found as third best. If it can get an easier enough time in front it could bob and pay nice place odds.

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