Horse Racing Analysis

Flemington

Exclusive Report 5th July

Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1: 2-8-1

Without wanting to really get involved Georgia's Boy is the tip in the first. Has run some really good races behind the best going around in Whobegotyou, Exceedingly Good et al. With the rail true after racing with it out 13m last week, the prospect of a fast lane early on the rail could well be a reality and with Georgia's Boy drawn three it's there to take advantage on the speed. Excelltastic is second best, looks to have the scope to get the 1400m easy enough will need a good ride early, but Ollie's riding so expect him to be put into the race. Third best, Dannebourg not a bad win last start held quite a good one in Freduian. The one draw looks an advantage in the first.

Race 2: 3-5-4

Behold is absolutely flying and gives you the impression of a Zabeel getting better...and we know all about them. I was taken with Behold's last run and the patience shown by the jockey until the home turn. Showed he had great confidence in the horse letting down well and he didn't let him down. The inside draw should allow him to get a soft run on the best surface, very hard to beat and well worth a bet. The main danger to Behold is Glistening. Glistening had been knocking on the door before it produced last start. Very impressive win that as he had to sprint off little momemtum. We know that Glistening can stay and on last run he can sprint as well. Clearly the second best is Glistening. Rumbird back to where he won well recently is third best. Has been up for a while Rumbird but has conditions to suit with a dry track a real possibility. I think you can bet on this race.

Race 3: 9-5-8-11

Clear class runner here in Tranquility Base. Tranquility Base races well fresh, can handle dead or dry the key will be to ensure that it's on the right winning side. The Penetrometer is slightly better on the outside so with the wide 13 draw on paper it looks ok. Go with Tranquility Base should be reasonable odds too. Hardest to beat Commanding Hope, just an above average class galloper who will be strong on the line. A good recipe for a good performance up the 1200m Flemington straight. One to look for at odds for quinellas, trifecta's is Hidden Wonder. David Hayes Hidden Wonder should have won the Hobart Strutt Stakes to give you an idea of her quality. Drawn 8 Hidden Wonder which is good, can sit off them and should come with a clear run late, with the Flemington 1200m test suiting.

Race 5: 1-3-6

Impressed by Toulese Lautrec winning at Sandown last start in the heavy. Think she will get the extra trip no worries and the flatness of the Flemington surface and his actual size should offset the impost of 68kg that Toulese Lautrec will carry. If you are wanting to bet on this race he is my tip. Next best Geeorb from Shrogginet.

Race 6: 17-12-1

Despite the big field in the sprint there looks to be three clear winning hopes to my mind. Stavka is the top rater with a very good return to racing at Bendigo, in what was a reasonable race. Don't know if this absolutely suits the horse despite coming here before and winning, but he looks the one Stavka. Really liked the game return by Sensational Toy last start. Had no chance on the weights behind Whitehaven Girl but still almost made a race of it. Will be fitter for that and Sensational Toy has won down the straight, so a definite include here. Threedee was an excellent winner last start at his favourite course Moonee Valley. 10/10 ride but Threedee was still impressive, has a weight concession and will be strong on the line. He should go close to repeating that performance and be hard to beat as well.

Race 7: *3-6-4-9

Interesting race the Winter Championship and I think a really good opportunity exists. We were on In The Shadows last start and got rewarded with a valiant third paying $6.90 the place. Let's investigate that race a little further. Speed was good and they ran a second and a half quicker than the 3yo's on the day. Where did the other horses who were on the speed with In The Shadows, tailed off. Royal Ida had a similar wide run and finshed 10 lengths off the winner. So it was a special effort considering he over-raced and was trapped wide. I don't think the quickish back up will be any problem, a lack of racing was a reason behind his lacklustre run at Bendigo. This is a horse that beat Barlinnie for and square over this trip in the Gold Nugget at Ballarat last Spring, that horse went on to narrowly miss here at Group 2. He along with Sea Battle are the class runnners of the field. The question is will In the Shadows get an easy run from out wide on the speed. Most likely, two things there is no speed in the race, and those drawn inside in Okay Oky, Magnetic and Sea Battle will drift back so there will be no pressure from the inside. They put up 21's yesterday and that was knocked off pretty quick, he's still value In the Shadows at 17-1 and well worth a best bet at the great each-way odds. Sea Battle is next best. Will need a very good ride from inside, where will he be in the run. I think he will be midfield so he won't be a complete loss. Third best is O'Reilly's Clock who can race a touch handier than usual with barrier 5 and be a threat at odds. Rockpecker fourth best, Rockpecker will get the run of the race.

Race 8: *4-1-8-5

Think there is a very above average 3yo filly here in Just Like El. We got the cash last start, and lucky for us a few will put that down to a superior wet track performance. But I think Just Like El is better than that. You only need to watch her first up run to believe she can do it on the dry as well if that's how it's to be. If you are going to back a horse that comes off the speed there needs to be favours and I think there is in this race. Elle Domine, The Clown, Sanpan, Lady Phoebe, Try This, With Apologies all like to race foward. This little bit of expected pressure will allow Just Like El to sit off them and run over the top, knowing she will get a clear run with the wide draw. I like her alot and making her a best bet. Will get eachway odds so no problems going each-way. Sanpan, Elle Domine, Moylan and Whitemore Dynasty are ones most likely to fill the minors.

Just Like El & In The Shadows are Best Bets.