Racing Analysis

Flemington

Exclusive Report 31st May

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1: 2

Not one to go stupid about the hurdlers but I did like the look of recent winner Mt Townsend. Has a real sound action and can be put to sleep on the rail with the big weight and be produced at the right time to win the George Watson hurdle.

Race 4: 1-8-2-9

Good mares in good form are always worth following and in a mystery 1200m straight race if the odds are right Beaming looks the way to go again. Backing a backmarker on the rail over this distance is fraught generally with danger, however in this instance she will have the back of good front runners that have drawn low in Delyara and Magic Of Melbourne. This will bring her into the race, and the way they position the barriers in the middle you have more flexibility these days. Supsect she will get away from most on the tote and worth a small wager. She looked more powerful than ever last start, and I think she has generally improved, she looks a little bigger than her last campaign and is finishing even harder. Distance is perfect. Pride of Kingston looks second best this track and distance, barrier all look in her favour. Danish Puss is a winner and should be thereabouts here third best, then Belle's Ready who looked ok last start and I think she will be marginally better suited here (away from the uphill finish).

Race 5: 4-10-2

This doesn't look a super deep race and Rhombus Lad looks to have the most going for it into this. He's improved in both runs to date, and with that fitness I think he will be sent foward from out wide and look to be up there on a slow speed. I think he has the talent to win this from Mock. Big run last start, reminder of what he's capable of and he always races well this course and distance. Down in the weights drawn well for him. Bird Dancer I see as the only other winning hope in the race and rate him third best. 1600m slow speed big Flemington track is his go, and he should still have another one or two good runs in him.

Race 6: 5-11-3

Again the only thing that suggests this race will be run anywhere faster than slow is the presence of a big field. That's not enough however to suggest they will run even medium for mine so jockeying will be all important here. Enter Brad Rawiller on In The Shadows. He is a mast er at getting this horse in the firing line from any barrier and expect him to do it here knowing that the speed and horses to beat will be up there. He got a bit exposed last start down the straight that didn't look suitable, but around a bend and a long straight does. Remember how he overpowered Barlinnie at Ballarat last campaign in similar circumstances. 1400m is right up his alley and he's ready to fire in my book. 10-1 get on! Think he can sit in the first 5 and track Orbit Express all the way up the straight and beat him. He's my second pick. Looks like getting an easy lead with no weight and a firm track that should suit. Archie Senior I've made third best. Excellent run last start couldn't have gone any better after drawing off the track. He looks back the only query is this course where he hasn't really fired. But I expect him to stand up today.

Race 7: 4-7-14

Not super keen on this race I will say that in the outset, probably happy to let this one slide. I think the race is in three and they are quite well fancied - Ballack, Sister Sweet, and Montaon. Ballack is the top pick looked really good at Cranbourne and has won and placed well here recently. This is not strong he looks the winner on paper. Sister Sweet goes better than I first labelled here. She has shown she is a big track horse who can sustain a run, again a mare in peak career form is worth following and she must go in. Montaon is third best, beaten by the inside barrier last start when he couldn't quite get going when he needed too. His drawn the same barrier and has struck a jockey who is familiar with this pattern and knows about inside draws. He will be a threat.

Race 8: 2-10-1-7

Extension of Time really stands out here. Outside the topweight this race is close to a midweeker and this horse ran a strong second in the Thousand Guineas. That sounds good doesn't it but further to that she was really unlucky over 1600m in the Edward Manifold in the Spring so this is a good horse. Speed should be ok and with the rail in the true it should be no disadvantage to rip down the middle of the track which is where I see her coming. This may be a stepping stone to Brisbane so expect her to go win this. The big track and the fact he should get into the right spot in the race I rate Royal Lineup second best, just in front of Hanna Rossa. She was ok last start in a much tougher race. Fidemus I rate as next best, she might get her own way in front and be hard to catch.

Eagle Farm

Race 6: 6-3-1

Have been with this one all the way and she went even better than I thought she would with little favours last start. I speak of Maunatrice. She's always looked a horse from it's early days and what is obvious about her is her extra ability in wet conditions. Last start there was a lack of speed but she took off early hit the front, didn't really handle the Valley but raced away strongly to win by 4 plus. Being out of Keltrice will scare enough away but her ability to stay is a bloodline trait with her mother winning multiple times at 2000m and beyond. She has pleased Darren Weir the alternate way of going and in what will be a slugfest in the wet she looks a great each-way bet. Her obvious dangers are Heavenly Glow and Pentacity who both look like measuring up in this.

Race 7: 2-5-14

History tells us how good Black Ink goes in the real wet. It also tells us that his best runs are fresh and that is what he is today. Down to a realistic winning weight for him. Jim Byrne will put him to sleep and pull him outwide and he should be very hard to beat. In his favour are his main dangers look to have the job ahead. Mitanni a backmarker has drawn awkwardly in one, and will find it hard to quicken with the 58kg, and Chinchilla Rose has the anchor of possessing Last Tycoon in the bloodlines and explains why she has never won in the wet. Sequestrate and Ulladulla other main hopes haven't won in the wet either. I think Black Ink is worth the punt despite not winning past 1200m. He's been competitive over this distance and age tends to allow them to get further.

I also really like Mr Unforgettable at Eagle Farm but the bog track is a query, I'm going to back him straight just in case he handles it. Save on Tan Tat De Lago.

Tim's Top Raters

In The Shadows & Black Ink best bets.