Horse Racing Analysis

Flemington

Exclusive Report 1st Novemeber

Race 1: 4-5-2-3

Noesis looks hard to beat on what he did first time out he's the top rater, Movie I rate as the danger he improved nicely off his first up showing to zip down the outside and win commandingly at Roshehill. Following the early money with Zaffran third best. I thought Our Joan Of Arc was a tad dissapointing at Moonee Valley last start after an impressive debut. Perhaps he can improve off the experience, but probably needs an affected surface to run up to its debut stakes win.

Race 2: 2-3-9-6

I really would like to play in this one because I rate Dr Doubtes and Caymans. Having studied recent trends and last year's Derby Day while there was no specific bias it was definitely and advantage early in the day to be on the rail or drawn inside, so I'm keeping that in mind. There looks to be enough go foward horses in Georgia's Boy, Grand Couture, Trustus and probably Millbank going foward. So both of these will get back and come around them. I'm going to go with Dr Doubtes who can probably race a touch handier than Caymans, his runs have been super, and I think he will better for the experience. He took off from the start to beat Iamzeus in a good 1400m event, before he ran into a freak in Heart of Dreams and was forced to cover ground were no one made ground at Caulfield. Looked really good there. I think him eachway is an ok bet. Seriously respect Caymans was excellent at Caulfield, excellent in Sydney he is more precocious than Dr Doubtes, by that I mean he's all there now. I think he will find it a little difficult running over the top of them down the middle, just because of the track. Grand Couture is your insurance policy if there is an advantage down the inside, good effort at Bendigo and the second placegetter came out and won at Seymour. Nato I think is the value runner. Should appreciate the distance and get a cheap run from three.

Race 3: 6-2-1-11

Do we dip a toe in at Largo Lad again here. I like the draw and like the jockey change. Did anyone watch Craig Williams ride him last start, he looked like he gave up a few times on him. I was not suprised at all he got dumped. If the track holds together I think you can come into him, if there is any rain I would be switching to Newport very quickly. I respect Light Vision but he is creeping up in the weights and I will throw a roughie at you with a good place, trifecta and first four chance More Oxygen Please. Worked hard at Seymour last start, should get an easy lead here and I think that will be a slight advantage early in the day with the rail true.

Race 4: 12-11-5

With Samantha Miss waiting for these in the Oaks and serious black type on the line, I think this race will definitely be taken very seriously by all runners with Broodmare Values set to soar if they can manage to win this. With that in mind expect some imagination from jockeys and trainers and I'm looking for something from Danny Nikolic on Rocha (8.25) . This horse didn't show a great deal until he hit a midweeker at Randwick where he took off a the turn and held off everything very strongly bar Roman Emperor a Bart Cummings colt that is highly respected. She then went to Moonee Valley and travelled like a horse way too good for them, was jogging into the race but copped interference and no runs all they way up the straight until it got out and pushed Testa Monte right to the line. On that performance she was stepped out favourite last start but got tossed around like a pinball, suffered interference on the turn and tried to make ground out wide. Forget that run. With the regular jockey back on board, I'm hoping they figure out that going back is not much fun here, they'll cop another sluggish speed with the same horses dominating like they did at Caulfield. I think she can roll foward, with the long back straight and slot in or go to the front. Go to the front Danny this horse sticks like glue. If he does that your looking at a very appetising 31-1 chance in this eachway. She will do the job for you. Her main danger is Think Money, best drawn of the swoopers which I think is important and she looked really good late. Another Bart horse with Nassipour in the bloodlines and they seem to get better and better and if she improves off her last run - look out. Third best is Glowlamp. Should get a super run from the inside barrier, and should definitely improve off her first run in Melbourne which was much better than it looked. She's a really strong chance in this. I would steer away from a few that have drawn out wide and get back like Oval Affair, Sparks Fly etc.

Race 5: 6-7-3-1-9

I wish they didn't trial this on Tuesday because we probably would have got the visitors price of $4 on Northern Meteor (8.25), after that whirlwind effort down the outside rail we now have to cop around the even money mark. As mentioned in my early thoughts in the week I was convinced of this horse, he has a super action and times back that up. They usually go the outside rail down the straight which will suit him given his Sydney racing. I'm going to bet up on him and put a place bet on Fist of Fury who will be tracking him down the outside rail and is a serious horse in its own right. On pure ability Wilander is next best, but he might have to do it all down the inside of the track because he didn't seem to like coming down the outside rail first up. Put him in anyway he's flying, next best Von Costa De Hero and Impressive Eagle.

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