Racing Analysis

Flemington

Exclusive Report 28th June

Form Guides (RSB)

Race 2: 3-14-4-10

Tipping the most expensive horse in this race who ran fourth untouched in a good trial at Cranbourne. That was run in quick time and included good horses Pirates and Buckets. Will be a good race to watch this one with Drumbeats the top rater from Senna. Good run on debut in a very strong race at Moe. She looks to be the best of the raced to my eye. Footy Legend trialled well before sent for a spell, third best from Nankeen who was ok on debut.

Race 3: 13-4-6

We Wonder is the horse I like in this without being super confident, probably could be ridden quiter than usual and still get the job done. Has been running well on inferior tracks and has even better form on top of the ground. Will need an intelligent ride but if she gets that she'll go very close to winning. This is a good distance range for Packing Success and his run here recently in slighly better company was encouraging. Goes in your thoughts. Third best, but proably a good lay in the race is One Way Or Another. Prefers wetter ground and while I think he races better with cover and he will get that from one, not sure those in front of him can bring him into the race. I think something down the outside here is what to look for.

Race 4: 2-14-5

Apple Lode, Electronic Cross and Straight Legs are the ones I like in this. Probably can't make a decision on Electronic Cross until we see it in the yard, coming off a year lay-off and one trial. Apple Lode then by default becomes the top rater. Ran a terrific race last start around two horses who would blow these away in Threedee and Kaphero. She is a Valley horse though keep that in mind but I like the fact she is drawn 14. Needs room to race best. Electronic Cross was going places before being forced out of racing. Came back and ran 4th in a trial that included the impressive Stavka. Can't really draw much from that but I can suggest he's above these on ability and with no weight is the value horse in the race. Straight Legs is third best. Has had his two runs back and goes well at Flemington and this isn't tough. Taking on La Chassuese, will be short and I think her best runs are second-up and beyond.

Race 5: Grand National Hurdle 13-8-2

Not that keen on the hurdlers but my tips are Derringer from Indicates and Shrogginet.

Race 6: 3-12-2-6

If ridden to his normal pattern In The Shadows can find himself in the gun position and win this race. I think Mclurch, Sea Battle will come across from out wide and lead with Larson booting up from the inside. The gun spot will be tha back of them moving into the race and that's where In the Shadows can lob. Would prefer Brad Rawiller riding, but D.Brereton has at least some experience on the horse. Pretty ordinary run by this horse last start, but history tells us his best runs are when they are not spaced, and he was coming into the last one of a 3.5 week break. Not ideal, and the 60kg was a fair impost. I expect him to improve on that alot and return to his best and win this at odds. Sea Battle the hardest to beat, he will push foward and attempt to make his own luck. Going well. I think Chiack can storm into a place, races much better after a run and wasn't wound up first up. Snort is favoured here too put him in quaddies, exotics etc.

Race 8: 11-7-6

There are horses I like in this race but they haven't drawn ideal for me. I have come up with Cashmeup as the top rater but with no great confidence. Good run last start, bit concerned though there was a faster 1200m event at Seymour on that day. Should get the right run though. Ma Shang and Viking Turf Belle I like but have drawn 1,2 which are not favourable with there patterns. They both like to get back and run on. Traffic is going to be an issue, though by this time in the day the races should break up a little more and they will get there opportunity to both run on and grab a place. Monsier Feraud is next best.

Race 8: 9-4-2

Can't believe I'm tipping a horse beaten by Port Isabel last start, but Flamenico Miss had excuses on that occassion. Go on its start before when it was chasing home Hidden Energy and subsequent strong Valley winner Sanpan. I think with it's light weight it can blaze down the outside which will most likely be a reasonable spot in the last. Go with her, Hissing Sid had excuses too last start and this is a pretty good horse who will look the winner at the 100m mark. But the last bit it can be exposed to a better galloper. Third best Rightfully Yours. Above average galloper good enough to win this. Will be short and is carrying 58kg so you will need to be brave stepping into the low odds. Will be there all the same.

Nothing jumps out on this programme but In The Shadows and Flamenco Miss are good each-way hopes.