Racing Analysis

Flemington

Exclusive Report 8th March

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

I think this horse Estee has lengths on these. She wasn't fully wound up for her first perfomance but was too good. I've got a feeling she will go even better on the flat of Flemington against the uphill of Sandown. Top Fluc her at some stage she will be a betting proposition given the vagaries of betting on the first. Contessa Mia is next best, wasn't quite close enough at Yarra Valley to really threaten but stretched out nicely late, one that will be definitely be big odds and worth a look. Sienna's Fury next best. Smart little horse.

Race 2 :

Obviously the lead here will be what they do in the first, so far as whether it's better to go the in or outside. Selections here are based on talent. Going with Kariba Kariba in this who looked very good last start. Couldn't get close enough at Sandown, but those watching recognised a good horse and he was duly supported next start. Gives the impression that he is not simply a sprinter and that will be important at the death of this race. Tan Tat De Lago is the one that needs to be kept safe, has been nominated for just about every race programmed this year and looks like finally appearing here. Not to sure what to make of that. I can tell you though she appreciates the straight line racing, only need to compare her Caulfield and Flemington performances to discover that. Victory Chant is next best, looks the leader.

Race 3 :

Selected what I thought was the best horse in this race with Von Costa Da Hero. Drawn two and on paper for a horse that will race off the speed looks fraught with danger over 1400m, but there looks a smidgin of speed and with Carnero likely to do something from the rail in front he might be able to rail up and take the splits when gaps appear. Looks a real racehorse this one. Carnero is second best, couldn't fault that performance at Caulfield, distance and barrier are in his favour and is the danger. Zapurple next best good run at Ballarat.

Race 4 :

There are three horses here that I rate very similar in this race and I think it would be wise to rate their chances based on the likely market. The likely odds of the three I rate are Absolut Glam 2.7; Arapaho Miss 5.0; Queen of Queens 18. No prizes then for whom I'm selecting. Queen of Queens. Have always had time for this filly. She's really strong and classy at the end of her races, and for a horse that drifts back a little in the run barrier 5 is the one you want. Everything looks favourable here especially the price. Even though I rate Absolut Glam the equal of this horse you'll go broke backing horses at rock bottom odds and there's no value with her today. Arapaho Miss will be a menace at Flemington and you can't leave her out of any bets here, she's just as good a chance as the other two. Zarita is the other one, she's flying.

Race 5:

Race 6 :

Should be pretty much a snap for Weekend Hussler in the Newmarket. Brilliant runaway winner of the Ascot Vale over this Course and Distance. This horses strengths come to the fore down the straight. Just jump on. Swick is the only danger if something goes wrong for the Hussler. Excellent straight track horse, races even better when the pressure goes on, and a group one handicap is just the tonic for that. Miss Judgement again is worth another shot and should be worked into exactas and trifectas. Poor ride last start, has form at this track and history tells us she improves everytime she steps out. Well over the odds. Good place bet in the race. Dominated here over the Spring Carnival this course and distance.

Race 7:

Here we go the race everyone's been waiting for the Cadbury Guineas. I'm confident too there is a couple of bets in this race as well. Largo Lad is a best bet. We are steeling here at the 7,8,9 -1 mark. We're getting good odds here because of the odds and Hype on Light Fantastic and peopl e not making the difference between racing at Caulfield and Flemington. While I don't think it will bother the favourite Light Fantastic. Largo Lad would have been itching to get away from Caulfield. The big horse leaked oil in both appearances at the Heath in cornering before booming down the track when both races were over. He's proven at the distance and will be a four length better horse at Flemington. If you want to know the other reason I'm so confident, review your tapes and just watch the leg action of this horse it's brilliant. Go the Largo. Drawn brilliantly for him too in nine. Sound Journey, Light Fantastic and Viatorian are the dangers to my eyes. Sound Journey will be better for having two runs this prep looked great last start and drawn very well for him in six. Needs to be wedged away a bit and will most likely have the back of Light Fantastic. Seems a very good chaser. Hope he does win I backed him at 61 dollars in opening markets. Can't fault Light Fantastic on type, he puts them down great! He's got hot competition here however and even at his best I think Largo Lad can still get him. Viatorian is the place value in this race. I haven't gone off him I was just waiting for him to get to Flemington 1600m. He'll challenge this race and anything over $5 place is value. He's a tough horse and the barrier won't bother him as much as you might immediately think in 12. He can role foward or sit back.

Race 8:

Sirmione should I think win the Australian Cup. Was a better run than Princess Coup in the St George and thrashed her in the Mackinnon last year. Should win. Rubiscent is next best, has been ridden poorly recently. Look out for daring tactics employed here by Newitt, I dare say he will be set alight early he needs to be show his strength which is his tougness not his speed. Princess Coup third best.

Race 9:

Like Gotta Have Heart in the last. Drawn to lead with slouchers placed in and around him. Sonic Quest is hard to beat that just ensures a good eachway price on Gotta Have Heart. Sonic Quest is second best will be heavily backed and fair enough. Orange County and Blitzem Reilly are good horses to fill minor roles here.

Tim's Top Raters

Estee 8.1

Queen of Queens 8.0

Weekend Hussler 8.2

Largo Lad 8.3 (Top Fluc Recommended)

Gotta Have Heart 8.0