Racing Analysis

Flemington

Exclusive Report 2nd February

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

Hips Don't Lie is a good horse and proved that in the Spring, but it needs to be at least 2.60+ to consider backing it here. I'm going for a Freedman one called Okayala who by reports is a good youngster. The mail is it's pretty smart and has drawn very well to run on. If they go the inside it will be tagging into it with a clear run. If they go the outside it can sneak up behind them on the rail. Looks a good each-way bet in the first. Hip's Don't Lie the hardest to beat really opened up well with clear galloping room before being tipped out for a break. Track and Distance suit her, placing her in front of Nato who has terrific form around it and goes quite well in it's own right.

Race 2 :

I think you can risk Miss Percival in this, Wavelength, Perfect Feeling and Pintsize I all rate higher. Pintsize Is the one. Couldn't have done much better than where it finished last start drawn off the track and being first up. Suspected last campaign she would leap in performance from first to second run and was spot on with a good win over Guild at Sandown. That's an excellent pointer for this. A couple of other things in it's favour Wavelength and Perfect Feeling and Miss Percival for that matter will be ridden foward I figure for differing reasons, but that should make Pintsize's run from one a snap, and those mentioned will bring it into the race...so need to worry of it being caught on the rail with good flesh in front. Pintsize to win and worth a bet from Perfect Feeling who will be keen to prove her worth and Wavelength who's dangerous now that she's had the two obligatory runs now, typically show's something about now over some distance. Miss Percival next best...

Race 3 :

Toughest race of the day...will try and work this one out through process of elimiation. Predicting the speed to be solid. Cefalu likes to run along and has had a hitout so should be working up to some form of fitness, and North of Havana is usually not shy on speed. Those up in the weights therefore will be tested and there is a fair difference in weights to the minimum 53kg. I'm actually going to tip North of Havana as I see it as the strongest horse down in the weights, and usually it's best form is usually around the beginning of it's campaigns. Correct Amoondo and Arbitration are equally next best. Correct Amoondo loves Flemington and should get the favours from a low draw on a good speed, and Arbitration has the best form in the race, and will have the speed on for it run on. Then Cefalu.

Race 4 :

I think the big question here is are they going to be daring enough to lead on Zarita. That's it's best chance from one. If the don't lead and it's wedged on the fence in a likely slow run race forget about it. I like her but it's too risky for me to back her first up. I'm going for Katherine Gold who can go foward from four but doesn't necassialy have to lead. I think she will get the run of the race and her performances were excellent in the Spring. Third to Zarita from a wide draw at Sandown, beat the males at Caulfield over 1600m and run an excellent third in the Wakeful again to Zarita who on that occassion had a blessed run. Just think she has the power to match the topweight over this distance range and has the draw to be damaging. Miss Marielle I rate as next best, excellent win when finally got to Flemington. Is quite dynamic and a real threat of beating Katherine Gold. Drawn to come with one burst. Third best is between Zarita and PleasentSundayGirl.

Race 5:

This is a race...the old Debonair known as the CS Hayes. Sound Journey and Viatorian are the two that have seen from day one and my opinion are excellent race horses. We'll see Viatorian use that barrier 4, because what has been noticeable of its last two runs is it's dislike basically of running in behind horses. It was nothing but professional in its last campaign so it's not a maturity thing. It's a trait of the horse, and the trainer should respect that and with it racing against this excellent company expect it to be back on the speed. Last fortnight's pain and the Echuca misbehaviour before the turn must amount to this decision. Viatorian will lead and will be very hard to beat down the Flemington straight dictating. Will lead or sit on the outside of Validator who is likey to be ridden positively as that worked for it last start. Obviously races before this will be a good pointer to see if horses can get out wide and run on. And that is important for Sound Journey who needs this to be in play or at least an even playing field, and if there's nothing against it bias-wise get on. This is an exciting horse, I'm going to go-off before everyone else and call this a little lonhro. So much speed at the end of it's race. Won off the speed at Kilmore on debut in a whirlwind finish, did something only a super smart horse could pull off at Bairndale...that's a dead set leaders track and won from settling 12th over 1200m. Then had a regulation two length win over older horses including the well performed Schwarzer. I rate him better than Schilling despite Newitt opting for the other one. Don't fall for that one, remember Rightfully Yours last week and El Mandon. Sound Jounrney has the speed, Viatorian the confirmation. I will have a place bet on Viatorian, and an eachway go at SJ around the 10-1 mark. Barbaricus third best...he's a solid gelding.

Race 6 :

Gold Edition is all over this. Drawn Seven, good flexible barrier either way they go. She can lead or sit outside the leader without much trouble. I've come up with a best bet here because I feel her biggest two threats Miss Finland and Apache Cat have there work cutout. I do like Miss Finland at Flemington, but over a 1000m were I'll be supsecting that Gold Edition will be controlling the race, she won't get close enough to reel her in. Vormista nor Royal Asscher barely got close and they were the best performed sprinters over the Spring. Gold Edition is not going to stop for her as well even if she is coming. And Apache Cat I was all over as he goes so well fresh, but I think he's absolute best is seen at Caulfield where he absolutely guns that turn into the straight. Doesn't have that advantage and can't see him leading from two...which will be a big disadvantage. I do have a rule not to back mares first up but she breaks all the rules. You can't say her trial on Tuesday was one of that was looking at this as a pipe-opener, she sizzled down the straight. Go with the champ in this and load up. Grand Duels hardest to beat then Miss Finland. Just going to take on Apache Cat if they go the inside.

Race 7:

Not keen on this race. Just going for one who likes Flemington, can sprint at the end of a long trip and is in form, Elwood. Good win last start no reason why it can't be competitive in this. Britomart is starting to scare itself into form...maybe there's some late blooming in this Zabeel her last two runs her best. Perhaps its a good time to get on in moderate company. Moderato next best, ran second in a similar race last start. Then Saddler's Story. Flying but just not sure about it at Flemington where it has failed before at short odds.

Race 8:

Four horses in the last. Pinnacles on top from Larson, Hoodlum and Arevalo. I like Pinnacles trained off at the end of last campaign. Thinking he would have enjoyed the break and will be ready to show his best in a winnable race. Larson won't be able to complete similar tactics as last time-out where he cheekily took off along way out, as Flemington's dynamics over 1400m don't allow you to do that. That said, he is still flying and has fitness on side a good place chance in this race. Hoodlum next best who really enjoys big tracks...so keep an eye out for him at odds. And Arevalo, he will be in the fancies for sure, but will be ridden off the pace and from barrier three that doesn't help his cause.

Tim's Top Raters

Gold Edition is a best bet.

Midweek Report Available Here

These are my bets with ratings

Gold Edition 8.3

Sound Jounrney 8.1

Viatorian 8.1 (place)

Katherine Gold 7.8

Pintsize 7.8