Racing Analysis

Flemington

Exclusive Report 19th January

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

To be honest don't know much about the 2yo's but will be watching with keen interest. That said going for...Mount Everest over Earthwatch and Dashalot. One tip I'll give you though the only thing that swayed me towards Mount Everest was that Legible was is in the bloodlines a horse I rated, the Corey Brown getting the pick of the two factor is not in play, the Freedies tend to play tricks with punters in regards to this. Often the number two jock is on the best horse.

Race 2 :

The most trustworthy of these has 58kg in Miss Badoura giving cats like Lacey Underall and Impinge four kilograms. I thought I would never tip it on top but just because of the weights I'm tipping Impinge on top, but my bets will most likely be Miss Badoura the place who looks like getting an easy lead in this race and is hard to stop when fit and in winning form. Impinge though has no weight and is in winning grade, and at Flemington this track suits her big frame. Miss Badoura second best for reasons outlined and Lacey Underall third best. Has the most ability but needs to do something here to get her back on track.

Race 3 :

Tipping the Newcastle raider here in Baron Park. Not too much to go but a few things I can give you are that you need to be good to win at Newcastle on there very fair surface, and the horses she beat back then are now Open Class Company horses. The other thing I like about her is the Viscount in the bloodlines. Most have been very good and this one looks no different in what is a very moderate open company race (there's not even a Straight Legs to give it some beef). Alexander Bettle I rate as next best, has taken his time to get it right and come to town, but don't let that put you off. Has form through horses like He's Fierce, Seymour Bush and Let Loushe who are all capapble sprinters. In a relatively easy race this looks within his graps. Next best is anyone's, in fact I'll tip Anyways who's strength might be important right on the line when they are picking over the crumbs for minor placings. I'm a fan of Pedrillo's but I would sidestep him here, can't see him getting a clear run from three.

Race 4 :

Viatorian looks the goods here. Scratched from wednesday with owners keen on more prizemoney and a chance to lay an Australian Guineas trial. The thing that I like most about this horse is his huge gate and therefore stride, which once in full motion he can really hold it for a long time. That's why I made him a best bet at Bendigo (long straight) last time and one of the main reasons he is a best bet over the long stretches of Flemington. Melham may elect to lead from four depending if the rail is on early, Monicablinco is the other likely leader. Don't worry about him coming from behind last start, he wasn't urged at all. Bith win a run under his belt and Saturday grade to beat no chances will be taken. He'll do the business here for us and hoping for a decent price. Don't think there will be much in best tote or top fluc, I'm going to take Top Fluc and take best tote if the punters don't want him (ie. 5's or better). We should get off the mark here. StreetCar Desire and Monicablinco I rate the hardest to beat. Monicablinco will be advantaged by being able to take up a position and Street Car Desire runs on pretty well.

Race 5:

Home Sweet rolled back into the winner's list last start and can be followed up again here. I quite like this race in terms of multi's because I rate Lapse, Road To Athens and Tails of Triomphe as honest above average stayers who reward followers. Lapse has had a litiny of poor luck recently but over this distance and the fairness of this track there will be no excuses. Road To Athens still holds good form and may not have to be ridden as adventurous last start to compete in this easier grade. And Tails of Triomphe has a touch of class and is required for all bets. Great race to take quinellas and trifecta's as these four are the pick for mine.

Race 6 :

Can Publishing get an easy enough lead, from out wide to have enough energy to hold off the challengers. I'm tipping so, back to form last start...can usually put a few together and the 1400m is no threat. Royal Ida is such a good little horse and used to lumping big weights. Likely to drift back from that wide gate, but can see him unwinding and putting himself in the finish. Same with Count To Zero, back to the scene of a withering burst that provided riches over the Flemington Carnival. Not slaughtered by the weights and should get a chance to run on.

Race 7:

Can Bel Mer jump to the front and be too good here. There seemed to be very little in her runs from start to completion of her runs last campaign, and with a relatively small frame I'm tipping if she is wound up she can hold these. A few factors to note are whether the inside rail is on, and you would like to see some fitness in the yard, or early money go on (check out Iasbet.com after 10am...it's always good to see where the big money is going). These two factors will need to be ticked before backing her, but if that's the case then jump on. Can see her leading and running along without too much pressure. I like her as she really digs in at the end, and a 2 length defeat by Weekend Hussler over 1200m at Flemington is brilliant form for this. The next two I rate are the consistent Pencelaron who has been performing in similar class and looks to have drawn the best, as has Message Bank who will be able to lob outside the leader without to much trouble and flies up the straight track. Grand Duels is another one you can throw in.

Race 8:

Just rate King Johannes over the little mare Laura's Charm in the last. Obviously they have got the King going well enough that they can pop an apprentice jockey aboard. The weight drop is significant and places him all over this race with horses bringing in a mixture of form and ability. The step back in distance is no dramas this I believe is his best distance, and with recent good form at the track he should be hard to toss. Laura's Charm is an evergreen and put herself right in the action last start. She competed with the best mares last autumn and there is no reason why she can't be competitive in this. Where do you look for third. Going for Madison Lane and Forest Knight who both possess some high residual ability, this is the kind of track that allows you to show it, so perhaps a couple to think about for double digit place odds and hopefully a turning back of the clock. Correct Amoondo is another one you can throw in.

Tim's Top Raters

Viatorian is a best bet (Top Fluc recommended)

De Ja View Pakenham Sunday Race 7 no. 1 is a best bet (Top Fluc recommended)

On Sunday: I like two horses alot Samoan Prince at Kilmore in the fourth no 4, and De Ja View in the seventh at Pakenham. De Ja View (Top Fluc if you can get it, best tote won't be much in it) is also a best bet, won by six on debut (enough said) and was made to come around the bend at Ballarat about 10 deep and did everything but run down Deacon who was allowed to get away with murder. Pakenham's quite a tricky track, but from four should be running in the first four and five, and should put it beyond doubt at the turn for us. Samoan Prince needs dry ground and it get's it here. No luck recently in all runs. The mid-wide draw is great...each way all day. Rate highly and we'll get our money out of him don't worry. Don't bet however if there's a drop of rain...it's a typical Last Tycoon.