Racing Analysis

Flemington

Exclusive Report 6th November : Melbourne Cup Day

Race 1:

Perhaps a bit of a watch and see the first. They being 2yo's I expect them to run in two divisions as it's a big ask over a 1000m scamper for young horses drawn in to run around in the middle of the course. That's what might stop Hips Don't Lie in the first who is likely to start a short favourite. Marveen might then be the way to go running a very close second to a smart one in Woppit. Looks a hard race to have a bet in.

Race 2 :

Just Curious is a very tough little horse and she has come back even better this campaign. She showed last start an extra gear has been inserted in her make-up which makes her far more formidable. Raced terribly at Moonee Valley when tried over a trip but I would forget that run, I think she can run out a strong 1700m. Drawn wide but Miss Badoura is a naturally leader so she will slide across quite ok. Pace will be strong and there is some ok ones down in the weights, so not super favourable but there is enough there to like her. Conservative eachway bet might be the way to go, or small quinellas with the following.... Manna Miss who likes softish ground and loves a strong speed that makes her a good chance, she has those favours, however she is a small horse giving significant weight to horses like Samutriark and Illinois Girl. These are the two you can work into all quniellas and trifectas. Though Samutriark was beaten out of sight last start she was strong on the line and beaten by a star in Moreton Bay. These are the four.

Race 3 :

Most of you will do the form and will come up with Completion as one of the best of the day. I'm sure this will be reflected in a tight tote price, so I recommend top fluc betting on him if you are keen. His form is outstanding for this race. Perhaps the Zazzman of the Lavazza, if he was anyone elses horse than Lloyd's he would be set for this year's Cup. I dare say that this is Team Williams horse for next year. This is Completion's Melbourne Cup. At Werribee first up he was a victim of stop start tactics, then he found a split late at Sandown and shot through that gap impressively, last start was the best fourth one has probably seen for a long time. Ridden disastrously in a big field at Caulfield he came from second last and rattled home to just miss a place. Looked a star. These horses are pathetic, and if he stays he wins by five. Back him straigtout. Bay Story for second because he goes all day and Aces High for third above average restricted horse.

Race 4 :

I like the class runners in this, on the weights and generally they look spot on for this. Eskaw, Pinsemtoit and Laura's Charm hold the key to the race. Backing up on Eskaw again, she won last start purely on class after a very nice first up run at Seymour. She was not interested in making any ground at the turn at Caulfield and actually lost ground on the leaders. But once she balanced up and straightened the talent kicked and she was too strong. She get's a better chance here to do the same with a longer straight this is much more suitable. She's been competitive over 1600m at Caulfield so she can get a soft 1400m at Flemington with ease. Ten draw perfect, extremely hard to beat. Her only dangers are Pinsemtoit who flies after a couple of runs and all her lead-ups have been encouraging, and Laura's Charm who historically runs much better races second up and has only 56kg in this field which looks extremely favourable. These are the three. Don't bother with the rest.

Race 5:

Regalio was superb on debut. Is probably looking for further, but with no real suitable races over the Spring Carnival you have to take what you can get. He will be the strongest on the line here if he can handle the straight. I suspect he will, and with so many flyers in this race his strength may be significant in the final 50m. I have him just in front of Simplest who goes alright and is suited in this race, and Swirly Dream who comes over from Adelaide with Stks form against her name and is racing some rather ordinary ones here.

Race 6:

I think this race you can take a narrow Quinella in boxing Acelend Street, Belcentra and Danedina. Aceland Street has put in two really strong performances in it's last two starts, and looks like getting a pretty soft run outside the leader. She sticks on hard, and fires on affected ground definitely the value in the race. Questionable though if she can hold Belcentra and Danedina who are flying. Danedina was terrific in a fast run race with a big weight last start, really impressive to the eye. Great action. Belcentra probably got as close as conceivably possible and she looks all over this race as well. Likely to roll foward and looks very hard to beat. Hard to split them, going for Danedina just...but definitely work bets around the others.

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