Racing Analysis

Flemington

Exclusive Report 8th September

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

I can see Fiercely Ember leading this and should be able to do it within herself. Queen Falvelon is the other natural leader, however with it's tendancy to wilt late in the peace, I'd imagine they will try and give it as soft as run as possible near the lead. That said I think Fiercely Ember is a huge chance of causing an upset here. I was really taken with it's debut win. Yes it only won by a length but there was about 8 lengths to the next horse, showing just how much she destroyed the majority of her opposition on debut. She'll be big odds but her talent should carry her along way in this and therefore worth an each-way ticket. Next best are the top two Gamble Me, then Gibraltor Campion. Both are above average and should be all over the finish.

Race 2 :

Lots of very good ones here but I think there will be a lack of speed and this should play into the hands of Pins On Parade and Riva San. Both can sit on the speed and give a very decent kick. I think we might see further improvement from Pins On Parade from last week's run and that's why I have him on top. Steve Arnold couldn't quite get him to settle, but with a quick back-up the freshness might be knocked out of the horse and we might see a more mature racehorse this week. Should get very good odds and worth taking the punt on again. His tenacity ensures each-way is a good option with him. The other one I like is Riva San. As mentioned he can sit right on the speed and has a very big kick. He will be given every chance to win this and I suggest to work him in to your thoughts. Oronero was a huge run last start can see him running on into this as will Hussonic.

Race 3 :

I like Blessed in this. Terrific return to racing, showing signs of real development to throttle a reasonable field at Caulfield. The longer the better, look for the jockey to ride her aggressively from out wide her best strength looks to be her motor. With a light weight and opportunity to dominate this race outside the leader it's a must they push on and make the stayers earn their crust. I think she can win from Mettre En Jeu who was very good first up. Was entitled to blow up a little on the line as that race was run quite hard. Might be able to sneak through and take the lead here. And looks a horse that will enjoy the long straight, I think he's the hardest to beat. Utility I have third best. Races attractively at Flemington and can sprint off a slow speed over these middle distances, he's one to watch and one who I think can fire here.

Race 4 :

Bird Dancer is the one that can take advantage of a good speed setup by Live In Vain in this one. I suggest to look at the strong fit ones who can perform at 1600m when looking for the winner. And I can narrow this one down to four live chances including the likely leader Live in Vain. They are Bird Dancer, Archie Senior, and Flash Coupe. Happy to take on King of Ashford I think he's a bit over-rated and likely to get softened up here. Bird Dancer likes a good speed has drawn two so won't spend a penny and the field should break up enough to ensure it get's a clear run. Looks a good bet in this. Her biggest threat is Archie Senior. Great little horse will be tested here though second up on a strong speed, should be thereabouts all the same. Flash Coupe looks suited here too. Great run first up and this suits. Those three and Live In Vain should fight this one out.

Race 5:

This race is generally a sit and sprint affair and this year looks no different with no real speed in the race. No idea who will lead here, but Juste Momente can race up on the pace and will get it's chance to dominate from up there. Impressed with the progression of this horse, and really hit the line first up. I think she's in for a good campaign and looks suited here. I think there are three other winning hopes. Eskimo Queen is an exceptional horse and will get her chance to run over these; Cancanelle looked good first up and likes a sit and sprint; and I mark Bellini Rose as a genuine improver and I thought her first up run perhaps was the pick in that Sprint. Check the odds out on this one and if any opportunities emerge in terms of overs get on. All the same I like Juste Momente each-way in this...Beadman will know what to do.

Check out Pre-Post DaneHill, Maykbe Diva Stks & Caulfield/Melbourne Cup betting below

Race 6 :

I think the winner of the Danehill is in three, Emjay Hussey, Sleek Chassis and Royal Asscher. Like the first two a little more than Royal Asscher, I think shes one you can save on here, if things go awry for the first two. Emjay Hussey should lead on the outside with the barriers set down the outside and can be very tough to beat from out there. Seriously good win at Caulfield on debut and this race shapes in her favour. I like her at the likely good odds. I also like Sleek Chassis on the wide open spaces of Flemington down the straight. She will get her chance hopefully to show off her best strength and that is her ability to sustain a long sprint. She's the big danger horse in this. You need to respect Royal Asscher too. Flying at the moment and has the added experience of winning with a leg in the air down the Flemington straight on the Grandstand side. Obviously there are some other good ones in this race but these are the three for me.

Race 7:

I like Tawqeet in the Maykbe Diva. Has been pleasing on-lookers with his trials up to this. The race looks like it will pan out right into his hands with Apache Cat trying to sprint away from them outside Maldivian at the top of the straight. This will allow Tawqeet to come through from three and get every chance to run him down. That which I think he can. Super horse last campaign and more impressive was his relatively fresh run in the Australian Cup. With more luck could have won that race. I think he looks more favoured than Marasco with the low draw, and him drawing outside of Marasco again is a slight advantage in my book. Tawqeet to beat Apache Cat who's next best. He will get every opportunity to win this and should go extremely close. There won't be much in it. Marasco and Zipping next best. With a lack of numbers and a likely sit and sprint up the Flemington straight Zipping is suited by those prevailing conditions and can run into a place here.

Race 8:

With Monahan Tweed and Soleil engaged this race should be run at a decent speed, so this should allow for all horses to be given every chance to win. That said we can look at the better horses to get the job done and to mine the standouts are Swick, Shadoways, and Storm Signal...then Divine Madonna. Potting Divine Madonna here given that she's first up and has been a bit fizzy first up before, I don't think she will like being cluttered up on the fence running on the wrong leg. Prepared to go around her and like the look of the S'ss here. Can't really split them but I think Storm Signal is likely to be the better out of those three and should get a dream run from eight. Because she was big odds winning first up, punters will likely steer away again. Leaving the smarties to clean up. She can race on the Sydney leg as proven with her good Brisbane form, and is a winner over further which can be the key to winning up the Flemington straight. She looks the best betting proposition here and therefore is the top rater. Swick goes well up the straight, loves a bit of speed on which he will get and will be finishing hard. Same with Shadoways. Both should get clear runs at them from there low draws.

Race 9:

Going for one of mine in the last Monte Cassino. The key to this horse is dry ground, the further the better, and a long straight. Should get that, and I like that he is drawn outside of the main dangers The Fuzz and Cefalu. Gauci should use that too advantage. Let Cefalu lead and bring him into the race, and keep The Fuzz in a pocket if possible back on the inside. More importantly though he's not a sit and sprint horse and will need to be out and running at the top of the straight. That said he's probably more a win proposition than place. If he doesn't get the right run he won't figure...and there's no point butchering cash. I thought he's run at Seymour was good enough, showed improvement he's the one here. Next best probably the obvious Master O'Reilly who goes well and The Fuzz who looked very good last start. Should be enough speed for both of those to be a chance to figure.

Tim's Top Raters

Best Bets are Barlinnie tmrw at Sandown Race 5, and Blessed Race 3 at Flemington. Barlinnie is an excellent horse looking for better things. His biggest danger Sunburnt Land has drawn awkwardly in one and I suspect Barlinnie will be ridden to beat that horse.