Racing Analysis

Caulfield

Exclusive Report 9th February

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

Saratime was a luckless runner here two weeks ago when flushed out deep early. And then on the turn could not find much room early in the straight but stretched out well when daylight was found. He was third to two very good ones last start and from three can sit right on Cefalu here all the way and be very hard to beat. About Face and Road to Athens are the hardest to beat. We found About Face last time and he nearly pinched it from Offenbach with a rattling run. Will come off the speed again and will get his chance. This no harder but Saratime might get the best of conditions down on the rail first feet out. Road To Athens will like this being a likely truly run race and he's in career form at the moment so don't treat lightly even being back in distance.

Race 2 :

Running Riot went up to win that race here last time but had it's hindquarters knocked from it when Centexpress came out under pressure. We didn't then get a chance to see what she could do with a full steam of momentum. Yes Froggy has jumped off for Vivacious Spirit, and maybe she is a slightly superior filly however this horse is capable of getting away with this one. Again drawn bang on in six, she drew seven last start and was dominating that race. She'll be value and should definitely at least place for you at odds. A good bet in this, her best feature will be when she can get a clear run and can grind at the death for you. She looks really tough. Erupts was better than it looked last start even in winning. It had to work to find the lead and dug in great to hold off a few good ones including Raffaelo. Can see him whooshing across again from out deep and controlling this race. She will be hard to beat. Won't have to work super hard here either. Vivacious Spirit is next best. Drawn four, Froggy will ride her a little closer than usual. Maybe that will be effective not sure. Her worst run was when she drew inside at Caulfield before. They are my reservations but I do rate her.

Race 3 :

Wilander ran massive time at Ballarat. Breaking 1.4 makes you stand up and take notice especially when it's a 2yo at Ballarat. Rarely do they go that low. Breed to be anything. The other two year old race was run almost a second slower and there looks to be a few that will come out of that race. So I'm leaning towards him from the low draw. Exceedingly Good was very impressive in his runs up the straight, not sure he has much more scope at his size but he will be competitive in this. Minesotta Shark is next best, big Diamond bets on this early doors.

Race 4 :

Haven't got a super grip on the mares yet...we'll be very keen to watch them again going with the Kavanagh momentum and Believe'n'succeed to beat Burgeis who will do better from a wider draw than last start and the consistent Whoppit. Might use this one as the half-time break as we prepare for an assault on the later part of the programme.

Race 5:

The sprint looks a tough one to play in. Royal Asscher will be super short. In her favour is that it looks a good distance range for her first up. She will get back anyhow so the seven draw actually looks perfect. She zips around Caulfield, the only time she was beaten here was by a Gold Edition flying performance in which she incidentally held Let Go Thommo. Almost talking myself into this one, but will just put her on top. 3.40 plus would get me interested, but she will be barely black figures. Mind Your Head could be value in this. Did nothing really last campaign with glimpses of form here in there. The last time he was fresh coming off a summer prep he flew at the Valley winning eased down. The key is him jumping, if he can jump neutrally he's worth being on because Caulfield really suits him as he can make use of winding up before the home turn. La Chasseuse is next best. Back to a suitable distance and track, a good chance in a tough race.

Race 6 :

Lucky Diva three in a row why not. Something might nail it but she again looks the bet in this race. Dominated again last start, it took Seachange to stop her last summer when she was in this vein of form and while there are some decent ones in this, they are a bit older and softer and coming off the break may not be ready for Lucky Diva's relentlessness. Going for a complete roughy and perhaps the value runner of the day in Rolling Stock. I see in early markets the tab has her at 80-1. She enilated Zarita one day at Mornington over the same distance. She is lightly raced, agree a bit hit and miss but definitely worth consideration with a good draw, light weight and should get a good run on the speed. Storm Signal typically comes to hand quickly and can make fluky runs from anywhere so while you would expect traffic from her low draw, she's capable of picking her way through. Third best in this.

Race 7:

Maldivian looks pretty much a good thing in this. The horses that I have found as dangers have drawn relatively poorly for there chances and that makes him even harder to beat. Throw the hasn't won second up talk out the window. He was never this good before, typical of the Zabeel breed he has got much better with age, he's got gears now with his racing. Terrific run first up in a stop start affair. Let Go Thommo stole that race. He's always shown a liking for Caulfield and being set for the Australian Cup he will be foward enough to win this.

Sirmione I rate as next best. He loves Caulfield, typically races well fresh and with the prospect of a slightly affected track comes right into it. Might be able to sneak along from the law drawn and threaten late. Count To Zero is the fit horse, and while drawn wide I don't think he necessarily has to sit last. With his fitness edge over a few backmarkers expect the jock to hit the positive button early and ride for a touch of luck. You can't win this race from last. A good place chance. Tears I Cry is next best. Good around these distances, prepared to overlook first run.

Race 8:

Maybe the hardest race of the day and not super excited about it. Can't split El Mandon, Corrugations, Tranquility Base and Villain very much. While I'm not overboard about any of these I'm confident the winner will come from these four. I'm just going to put Corrugations on top slightly in front of the other three. Good win on the provincials last start holding off a half-decent Freedman runner in Rokababa. Trainer is very upbeat about this one, and was dissappointed last time in town when he was scrathced as an emergency. The kind of race he can get away with. El Mandon ran well without much room last start. Look to have had his chance but the two in front of him were good, and this distance suits. Tranquility Base looked good in charging home on the rails last start. Looks like getting yet another good run in the race, might be a good place bet in this. Then Villain. Can perform at this distance, will need to have improved on last campaign to win this but can still see him finishing it off.

Race 9:

Oh right normally I'm off doing something else by this race, but this races is an absolute cracker. This is no boring mares race tacked on to the end of the programme. Easily the best race of the day. No suprises that Barlinnie, Gotta Have Heart are in my thoughts here but Seafarer I think is the one. Second up Caulfield 1400m is perfect. He's bumped into some really hot ones, but I can see Craig Williams itching to ride him positive from twelve knowing that the Barlinnies and Gotta Have Heart's will be great horses to follow in the race. Might not be camped right on them but will be going foward on the turn and this could be vital. He needs to be he can't be spotting these two in more than two lengths when the heat goes on.

Tim's Top Raters

Maldivian is a best bet (Top Fluc Recommended)

My Weekend Bets & Ratings

* (Friday night) Holy Request 8.0

Running Riot 8.1

Maldivian 8.3

Seafarer 8.1