Horse Racing Analysis

Caulfield

Exclusive Report 19th September

Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1: 4-6-2

Offer It Up looks to get an easy lead here that will assist his chances. Can win if it can control itself in front, any chinqs and Hifilatun will be all over him going on his last run in listed company. Should get in close enough from the barrier to threaten. Offer It up next best who was ok last start when wasn't given much of a chance. Surfside Christmas third best in a race I'm not too keen on.

Race 2: 5-6-11-1

Good race this some nice up and coming types at a distance range that suits most. Liked the performance of Paddy O'Reilly last start when made up good ground behind some very very smart ones. Looks like getting this distance and should go close in this. Tan Tat Dancer will be up on the speed and looks further advantaged by the step up in distance - one to put into multiples. Third best Marker. A good winner at Sale recently when struck a little bother might be a good place bet in the race. Then Excelltastic who has some class and looks capable of running the trip despite his breeding.

Race 3: 5-12-17-1

Sunburnt Land I've got no doubt is the best horse in this race but I think he will have the job ahead in winning it. I've tried to find a way to back it here but can't see it happening. The Jackal Marwin Gold I expect to come across with Live in Vain and Spectacular Saint pushing up. If there were good horses leading from the inside barriers things could turn for Sunburnt, but its likely to get buried in the field with alot of deadweight to get past to win. Skiddaw Peak is the smarter bet in the race. He races best in the Spring and should be able to lob midfield easy enough with clear running and go very close. Rockpecker is the danger. Should be able to position itself close enough from four, and is small enough to pick his way through a big field. Jeuneyman is third best, a 1200m specialist. Forgive last start 1400m at Sandown was too tough for him. He can do some damage from the one poll if he gets a run. Pinnacles next best - loves this track and ran enormous first up last time in without placing.

Race 4: 7-5-2

Three good mares stand out in this. Ortensia, Romneya and Sugar Babe. The barrier draw falls Ortensia's way and that's why I rate the top rater. Not sure what Romneya will do from the bad barrier, but she is good enough to wear an on-pace run or come coldly from the back. She will be a threat but I just favour Ortensia who from seven doesn't have to win this from last. Speed is reasonable enough here and don't think it was a gut buster last start. Go with Ortensia work Romneya into your thoughts who was excellent last start three wide on the speed and still giving it at the death. I rate her. Sugar Babe I rate a rung below these, but does everything right drawn an ok barrier and will be right in the finish.

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