Racing Analysis

Caulfield

Exclusive Report 22nd March

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

Ballerina Girl is the tip in the first. Alot of unknowns but this one showed the talent many thought she possessed last start...can go on with it.

Race 2 :

Excited about El Pauji in this. I think there are three horses flying in this that one must respect. El Pauji, Stagerush and Frisco Jess. El Pauji was a massive second up run here three wide all the way behind Catechuchu. Not suprised it ran a big race then in Adelaide in a listed event. Back to Caulfield drawn great, get's weight relief...showing she's ready. Bet up! Blessed will likely duel her for the lead, but she can sit off her or lead doesn't matter. Stagerush is some chance of knocking her off, finally gets away from Sandown and looks better suited over the shorter distances. If El Pauji can have two lengths on her on straigtening she won't run her down but expect her to be coming. Frisco Jess is the wildcard. Huge run first up. Drawn poorly and will be ridden for luck but third best all the same.

Race 3 :

I like the Bill Collins over 2000m. Vigor is a very good horse and showed that last start with a dominant win. Caulfield will suit it. Arazamatazz is just as good, not sure if Caulfield's its track however, might be closer positioned from barrier four than last start. Ollie gave it no chance back on the rail last in a slowly run race. He ran on. I would play in this race and I would work around Vigor, Arazzamatazz and Able Dragon. These three are the only ones capable of winning it. Keep that in mind. Vigor is the eachway betting proposition. Arazamatazz and Able Dragon are the quinella horses. As I said I like this one - should be betting here.

Race 4 :

This is a race however I wouldnt bother too much about. My tips are Beech Hurst 1st, King Hoaks 2nd, High Intensity 3rd, Northern Point 4th. Beech Hurst was heavily backed last start but dissapointed. Got a theory he's not a Sandown horse, up the hill. Drawn well here and can bounce back with dangers drawn poorly for there patterns. King Hoaks is that but drawn deep. Flying however and Froggy will probably roll the dice and go foward. Lots of pace in this race however, so it's setup for Beech Hurst. High Intensity third pick because it will enjoy the speed up front, and Northern Point might get the soft run from barrier two.

Race 5:

Bit of a danger race the Easter Cup. Think About Face is about 2 lengths better them. But will need to be ridden confident when it counts to get the cash. Likely to roll foward and sit in the death behind Like It Is and Sand Sweeper. They should give us some kick in the straight so that we can come off there backs without the swoopers gobbling early. In our favour are that Douro Valley and Come Fly with Me have drawn wide so they will probably have to go right back. So things look at least ok, for About Face. Suggest to jump on the win more than the place. Douro Valley is a danger because he flies at Caulfield. Come Fly With Me was brilliant in Adelaide and needs to be respected as well. Put a line through Sand Sweeper and Like It Is. I'll be very suprised if they win this.

Race 6 :

This programme is a rollercoaster from good races to poor ones. This is another poor one. Lot of mares returning in this and you know my rule...no thanks first up. That said selecting a horse that finished tailed off last start in Tease Me. Granted it was a terrible run. But this horse has a history of performing poorly once the freshness is out of her legs and racing inside horses. Here she has struck a moderate lot, has been freshened and will get to the outside easy enough with the wide draw. Definitely a chuck in for the Quaddie will be big odds. Hanna Rossa is next best. Clearly the class runner in the field, and occassionally can pull out a run fresh. Bonelle and Lots Of Thanks are next best...they will be closing in down the outside. Note Bonelle needs a firm track to perform at her best.

Race 7:

Again forgiveness is the word and this applies to Kariba Kariba. Probably would have started close to odds on if it didn't fail last start. If you were on last start, you would have been sweating as much as the horse when it was put in the barriers. It was sweating badly, raced accordingly, never looked comfortable up the straight. But it did try on the line which gives it life. Back here around a turn with its biggest threats drawn off the track, if the good Kariba Kariba turns up here...it will thrash them. Cing Rogue is the danger, haven't seen this one for a while but rate it highly. Pins On Parade is third best. Didn't seem to get into its right action last start but was good enough to stretch Gamble Me in a competitive race. He's a very good horse and needs to be respected. Drawn poorly again and carries a big weight.

Race 8:

I do like one alot in the last...Hike. Excellent return under a big weight last start. Running on...from the poorer part of Bendigo. Absolutely no weight here. I think Caulfield will really suit him. Looks a horse who can take some punishment and that's what the 1400m at Caulfield provides. He's struck a bunch of country gallopers here. Worried he'll be absolutley crunched in terms of betting. Zzyzx and Benson I rate as next best. But Hike your way to a few dollars in the last.

Tim's Top Raters

El Pauji Best Bet (E/W) 8.2

Vigor Best Bet (E/W) 8.2

Kariba Kariba 8.0

Emperor Bonaparte 8.1 (Syndey)

Hike 8.1

About Face 8.0