Racing Analysis

Caulfield

Exclusive Report 5th April

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

I do like Doubly Sure in this. Won really well two starts ago, and fell in to the trap of attempting to improve last start through the field and not around it. With the six barrier it should be allowed to swoop on them at some stage, and I expect him to round these up. Hardest to beat is Tails of Triomphe. Good staying effort last start, the possibility of having a bit of sting out may assist. Third best is Ista Kareem. Looked the winner of the Adelaide Cup on the turn but failed to stay. Back in distance and at a course he likes he needs to go in. Overall form is good.

Race 2 :

Rail out 10 metres could make this a touch tricky, but generally wide barriers are ok over the 1200m at Caulfield. That said we can have another crack at Dan Baroness. Got the cash easily last start, and she will be looking to atone for her fourth over this trip and distance behind Carnero. Massive excuses on that occassion. She shouldn't have the same issues drawn wide here. She can come around them and win. Bit of a push for Albakoor from the track so keep that in mind. Not really sure for third perhaps the first up winner Sparks Fly.

Race 3 :

Really don't think we need to bother with this race! If you are keen to play I would be taking a look at Party Pie. Ran up to them like he was going to win, but just faded on his run. With natural improvement and down in the weights I like him at odds. Gorky Park is next best, classy horse getting to his right distance range. Then Correct Amoondo. Not really a Caulfield horse but has some of the better form going into the race and his class might hold him in good stead here.

Race 4 :

Price is everything here! In early assessments Able Dragon is going to be over the odds again. Probably needs horses on the speed in Vigor and Just the Rock to give a kick as he will be coming off there backs drawn inside in three. That's the issue here. That's feasible and therefore you can back him again with some confidence. Vigor will be the hardest to beat. Forget last run ridden poorly, jockey Steven King has been dumped from the ride. Expect him to take the lead or sit right on the leader...as I said this is where the horses strengths lie. If it doesn't Obrien has no idea! Zabdued will run on again. A Zabeel who is honest around these distances.

Race 5:

Each-way proposition in this. Something Anything. Encouraging run first up, likes the sting out of the ground, fires better after a run, likes the Victorian way of going Course and Distance. He's the way to go. Morgan Dollar was a stunning winner last start, but punters wont miss him. Expected to start even money. Trainer has identified that he can't get any work into him, and only performs fresh. Won't be suprised if he blows up here. Obviously if he repeats he will win. Think he's a risk though. Northern Point and Zupaone equally third best. Step back in distance is well in Northern Point's favour and Zupaone needs to show something

Race 6 :

Eclair Passion looks a class above these especially at this course and distance. Terrific winner first up, he's an absolute gun at this track. Should be able to roll up near the lead. Might be stalking Classic De Lago, Laura's Charm and El Pauji into the straight, I like his chances of running over these. Second best perhaps Classic De Lago at odds then Antidotes. Favourite Coniston Gem was true to form bombing it after a couple of excellent runs. She's done that before, and only the brave (or stupid) will be backing her here.

Race 7:

I've got one for you...and finally we will get some odds going on early reports. Tolka Rock. Blazed them on returning at Kyneton, spacing a couple of good gallopers including Slyconi who has won since. Went to Showcase level last start and was well in the market. Race was dominated by the leader Honour Winna, and this one had to make a deep run around some slow ones into the straight but did everything right running into fourth. Would have won if it was a fair race. Three placegetters came from the rail including Galactic Gun who has come out and won convincingly since. So the form is there. More than that I really rate this horse, and his action. Does it easily in the run has a nice long stride. Drawn 13. No problems. Diplomatic Strike (9), Emjay Hussey (11), La Rocket (12) are naturall go foward horses. The bulk of these will come across, and this will allow Tolka Rock to slide in midfield without a worry. Speed from outside ensures at least a medium tempo. He's a best bet this guy each way. Hope the 21 dollars in the paper holds. Smarties will back him but we'll get decent odds for sure. There's alot of depth to this race. Diplomatic Strike is next best. Did everything right and looked very good on debut. Vandalo has everything in his favour he must go in, and look for Fenton Hall screaming down the outside. He's fourth pick.

Race 8:

Hard to play in the last. These are my tips in order. Guild, Cinq Rogue, Dane Julia, Gold Dove. The first two I expect to improve, Dane Julia has class and Gold Dove has conditions to suit.

Tim's Top Raters

Best Bet - Tolka Rock (EW) 8.3

Other bets:

Dan Baroness 8.0

Eclair Passion 8.0

Something Anything (EW) 7.9

Love & Kisses 8.0 (Sydney Race 3).