Racing Analysis

Caulfield

Exclusive Report 23rd February

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

Could be a good thing here. No speed inside Palace General and Coniston Gem represent the go foward horses out wide. Luke Nolen will want to sit outside something in the run on Palace General but is found wanting ordinarily at the end of 1200m. Consiton Gem will be right on her hammer, surely Corey Brown will push foward on her from out deep. The only real threat on ability is Mind Your Head but he's drawn poorly for him in three as he has a bad habit of missing the start. Punters went for Coniston Gem first up, but La Chassuese was too race fit for her. This is the start you want to be with Consiton Gem and she really looked good late last start. Excellent way to start here, take anything they give you top fluc will be the best way to bet. Second best Rumbird. Trialled really well not a bad horse. Antidotes third best.

Race 2 :

There looks to be another good betting proposition in Zarita here. Hit the line super from a relatively awkward spot last start. I like the three week break because it was a fair test first up. But she showed her quality and toughness first up and will have come along for this. Can use the barrier here, and over 1600m the breaks will come. Another very good bet here. Her dangers are PleasantSundayGirl who was good last start, Katherine Gold who would have improved from that wide first up run and Bashful Girl who looked more than alright in a midweeker. But Zarita is better than these go with her.

Race 3 :

Super race this, I rate Moreton Bay the best just from Gotta Have Heart and then Cargo Cult. They are three very strong hopes in this. Wouldn't be too concerned about the wide barrier for Gotta Have Heart, he will get across in a snap and sit outside Publishing who looks the likely leader in the race. I do think Moreton Bay has drawn a flexible barrier that it can win from. Don't think from last start that it's a pure backmarker, ordinarily he can race up near the speed and a midfield posisition will be suffice here. He bungled the start at the Valley, that's why he was so far back. Can see him sitting midfield improving all the time. Haven't had any luck backing S King mounts recently but hoping that can turn around here. He powered home last start, and ran a track record at Geelong. He's good. If the track happens to be hard and fast you definitely should back Gotta Have Heart as well. Super run last start, beaten by a really good one in Seafarer. They ran much quicker time than the Orr last start...and it's bound to be a good form race. Cargo Cult is the other one to consider, and he comes more into your thoughts if the track is a little affected. His joints are bone on bone and needs the sting out to perform at his best. He's going super all the same and has drawn well for him in seven. Moreton Bay though is a super each way prospect in this.

Race 4 :

Wow stared at this race for about half an hour trying to work out where horses will be in the run in the Schweppes Cup. Viatorian and Vivacious Spirit will try and use there barriers, naturally I think Light Fantastic and Masked Assasin will roll foward and Musidora is probably the likely leader. Largo Lad should get a good run in the race and will be following some good ones into it, he's the one I like, Light Fantastic the danger. Both were super runs last time. I've got massive time for Largo Lad...think he will be very hard to beat in the Cadbury Guineas. He got around Caulfield ok last start, and really showed his ability in the last 300m. Light Fantastic is a really good horse, but will need a good ride here. Turffontein is a horse that looks really suited by the 1400m at Caulfield, and should be included in your thoughts. If having a bet Largo Lad for a place is the smart way to go. But it will be quite a sight this one, fabulous race.

Race 5:

The St George on the fall of the barriers looks a tricky one to play in. If Maldivian had of drawn out I would have been more confident. Teranaba and Rubiscent are bound to annoy him, this will be a typical WFA warfare. As I said in my review, Rubiscent put the brakes on last start and that cost Mal getting out and rolling and the race was over before the turn. Confident they will try and lead on Teranaba and Rubiscent will attempt to pocket Maldivian. As much as I'd like to tip Mal I can't. He can still win though if things go his way, so a win only proposition. S Arnold knows the strength of his horse and he won't stop trying to put him in the right spot. Given that and the likely pressure up front this might suit Seafarer who will be following them back on the rail. Don't mind a horse sneaking up on the rail over 1800m at Caulfield. Things tend to open up. He's a fabulous Caulfield Horse, exceptionally well bred and toughed out a strong classy 1400m race last start. At 15-1 or better he's the way to go in this. Princess Coup is still in her distance range and it was an excellent run first up she's second best. Then Maldivian. He's very good will be improved and if he can get a look at them for long enough he'll probably win. Can't back him though in this. Seafarer for mine is the betting proposition.

Race 6 :

There are four strong chances I see in the Oakleigh Plate and of any race in the day Quinellas and Trifectas are recommended here. Here De Angels, Weekend Hussler, Royal Asscher and Miss Judgement. I think Corey Brown will figure out riding Here De Angels foward from 14 will reap dividends. The likely leaders Magnus, Miss Jugdgement and Typhoon Zed will carry him along way in the race. Being on there backs will be important. How much deadweight between it and a Hungry Weekend Hussler could tell the tale. Like anyone else ticking you must respect Weekend Hussler, fabulous horse. But is this exactly his race, I'm not totally convinced. Just going with him from Here De Angels as the top rater then the smart mares. But they could be betting value in this. Royal Asscher will race much better following that first run. Can see her weaving her way through the field and going very close of a hot tempo. If you trying to figure out her first up run. Like any proven horse with bigger goals later in the prep, why would they be fully wound up for a cheap race first up. Answer they wouldn't, and expect 3-4 lengths improvement from her and Miss Judgement (value runner of the day) who will go much better second up.

Race 7:

Wilander just get on this. This is a pure racehorse. High natural speed from the gates, can settle and runs really well for Luke Nolen and gave a kick at Ballarat and Caulfield like a really really good horse. His star is about to shine and I suspect we'll be looking back thinking he was decent odds at 5 or 6-1. His biggest threats if any, are in my mind Reaan and Okaylah. Reaan was one of the horse David Hayes trained horses picked out of his crop to run in the Spring to be a step ahead for the Blue Diamond. He made significant improvement in the look of his run first up in comparison to his fighting runs in the Spring. I think he will get a good run in the race one or two pairs back the outside and at 16-1 he's the value runner. Okaylah overcome quite a few knocks in running in the Talindert to be just go down by a hair to a very honest one in Hips Dont Lie. I think of the run on horses she can use the inside barrier a little better than say an All American drawn close by. She looked good last start and I expect her to attack the line here.

If the track is a slow 6 or better this is how I will attack it.

Big Bet on Wilander to win (You can back him eachway)

Small Bet on Reann to win

Place Bet on Okaylah.

Race 8:

Catechuchu can win here. Like the three draw this race really shapes up for her. Thought her effort was ok/good last start she just peaked on the line. That run should bring her along for this. A return to her best would see her win, not poorly weighted and back to mares class. This distance range is perfect too. Worth the speculation in this. Next best Star Rose and Translate.

Race 9:

Belong To Many is a really good bet in the last. Will have improved on that first up run. Put up an amazing effort to win in Sydney last time it was second up. Travelled beautifully first time the Melbourne Way at Moonee Valley. Didn't have the luck the winner had last start, that's why It couldn't quite run down Majestic Point. Had to switch around a slow one. From four Ollie will ride the speed all they way. And if there is no serious bias towards horses finishing out wide put something on this one. Affected track form is good enough. Benatar is a good little racehorse she's definitely second best, then Miss Evergreen. Trial was a bit strange, but she goes ok fresh and if it's a sit and sprint she can be handy.

Tim's Top Raters

Ratings

Wilander Best Bet 8.3 (Top Fluc)

(Track needs to be slow 6 or better)

De Ja View 8.3 * Friday night Best Bet (Top Fluc)

Largo Lad 8.2 (place)

Belong To Many 8.2 (watch for a track bias out-wide, we don't want to see that)

Zarita 8.1

Coniston Gem 8.1

Moreton Bay 8.1

Seafarer 7.9