Horse Racing Analysis

Caulfield

Exclusive Report 19th July

Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1: 7-10-3-2

It seems a few more come into it with the prospect of a track around the slow 6 mark. I have come up with Horshoe Reef who has come up well this campaign with better than average showings over unsuitable journeys. I think the difficulty of the 2400m at Caulfield is in his favour. He needs a challenge - a sit and spring staying event is not his go. But I think Runaway Combi the likely leader will set a good enough tempo and those up on the speed here will be advantaged given they haven't raced at Caulfield for two months. I think Runaway Combi can keep going and run second. This track will suit him as will the conditions. He must be going alright to win a race by 9 lengths recently. Glistening third best and is a chance again, had all the favours last start and managed third this is slightly easier and the wetter track suits so he will be right there. Joontoo Gemini fourth best. Not quite as good away from Sandown that little horse so be careful with overating her in this.

Race 2: 6-1-9

Liked the trial of Lord Pindari recently, thought it was the equal of any on the day. Happy to tip it on top from Darpana who has good form intertwined around Hybrid and others who I rate. Buckets third best - is a good consistent galloper.

Race 3: *5-3-7-8

Studied this race very deeply. On a track that hasn't been raced on in a while, in a race there doesn't seem to be much speed in, it would seem hard to make a best bet on a horse that has drawn 11 and gets back. But I will. With the track being rain affected the likelihood of that rail bias is eased, and all the competition appears in the outside barriers here and I will explain why that is favourable. * Before we get there though, if there is a distinct pattern favouring leaders on the rail in the first two races I recommend seriously pulling back your bets here. We want an even playing field. The second point I make all competition drawn out wide is true in this race. Princess Gisella 8, Dandy Dollar 9, Viking Turf Belle 10, Just Like El 11. Even if one of these doesn't shoot foward early which is possible because there is only speed in the legs of a few. They will be making the runs in the race and bringing horses around them into the race. That's key here and this then will give Just Like El every chance to win on a track and distance that looks very suitable. She won last start overcoming a slow speed, and prior to that smashed them on a heavy track. Don't bother looking at her form prior - it's ok - just look at her now. She's a real improver and a very good horse. Think we will get 6/7-1 here Top Fluc so we can go all out on that each-way. Back her that way with confidence you will get a return. Princess Gisella is the hardest to beat, from Running Riot and Viking Turf Belle.

Race 4: 2-8-7

Magnetic is flying and has track and ground conditions to suit. Will probably start under the odds and it won't be a picnic from the unfavourable inside gate, but I think with the wet ground an opportunity will come to make his run and he will win. Suspect he will be close to even money so won't be the betting proposition that everyone will pre-determine. Forget Tremezzo went around last start in a harder race. She will be muh more suited here in lesser grade and at Caulfield her home track. Giving Wavelength a chance to place despite a poor run last start. She has never gone well at the Valley so keep that in mind. Favourable distance here and has performed well in the wet. Third best.

Race 5: 4-1-8-10

I was dead-keen on this race until the heavens opened a little. If the track doesn't come up to bad I think you can make some good money on this race. I had Blue Oscar as a best bet on a good/dead track but not quite as confident with the track likely to be a little affected. Still think he can win though. You need to respect a horse who can make his own luck of a wide draw like Blue Oscar last start. And fight on to win. Beat a good one in Tinamou, but more than that looked very impressive and I really like the suitability of this track and distance for him. Should get an easy run in the first five, threaten on the turn and be extremely hard to run down. Think now Davcon will be the hardest to beat. Really good win last start. Absolutely no favours here though on the backup. Wide draw big weight. That's what so appealing about Blue Oscar his main competition has it all in front of him. I made Magnum Fourty Four third best. Would have liked to have seen him on a dry track but still respect on an ok surface. With the blinkers and inside draw will get the chance to roll foward and make his own luck at a track that I think will really suit him. Ciampono is fourth best and the blouser of the field. Had good form before winning well last start.

Race 6: 10-6-2-9

Again another one I was dead keen on a fair surface but with the track likely to be around the slow 6 mark - supreme confidence is eroded a little. I still think La Chassuese can win. I've always felt her best runs are second up, and the Flemington hit-out while good was necessary to have her cherry ripe for a black-type win here. Drawn perfectly and her biggest danger Tesbury Jack is not only a bit of query first up but has never won in the wet. La Chassuese the top rater and still worth a wager. Found it hard to split Electronic Cross, Live In Vain, Lucky Diva and Whitehaven Girl as next best. Electronic Cross will be huge value, wasn't that bad first up after desperately needing the run. Was only four lengths off the winner. The other three will all be at there tops and come into it with the track affected.

Race 7: 10-8-16-7

Quite like Britomart here. Has been a Zabeel forever on the rise and was a hot favourite to take the Hobart Cup before playing up at the barrier. Such was her rise to form. She came back over an unsuitable 1000m at Sandown like a horse with something extra to give. The 1400m here on a wet track with a light weight and a flexible barrier appeals to me. Think she is an absolute must in everything you do here. Jungle Ruler comes into it now the track is affected. Had a serious bias in his favour last start but should get a favourable lead here again and be hard to beat with a good weight for such a small horse. Day Out is third best. Zero luck in the bush recently but was still good enough to find a way to win. Likes this track and distance and in a weak race is a threat. Roadhog is included in the selections because of his liking for this track, distance and the ground.

Race 8: 6-1-2

Think the last race has no depth at all. Only three hopes. Red Jesteress, Sensational Toy and Benatar. No super push for either one but each has there chance to win. Just because of the odds making Red Jesteress the top rater. Has been scratched a few times recently, so that could be a good lead that they are looking for a kill. Likes this track, wet conditions, and wide draws has no weight so if ready can be dangerous. Sensational Toy was a forgive run last start after bungling the start. Did run home stylishly though and should be all over the finish here. Benatar could easily blitz this. Does tend to prefer a run under her belt and dry conditions. Too good to leave out though in this weak of company, and did trial well recently.

Just Like El is a best bet*