Racing Analysis

Posted Thursday's Available after 6:30 pm

Caulfield

Exclusive Report 18th August

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

This looks a punter's trap the first...stay away from this or back a few roughies is my suggestion. I'm sure Magnetic will go around a flick over even money and he's a bookie's quote at that. He's drawn one and with 58kg Danny Brereton hasn't got much choice but to ride him back and cold...no thanks. Dane Empire and Toulese Lautrec to me look the winning chances. Dane Empire has a 5 kilo swing on Magnetic, will be much fitter for that recent run and is ready to go. Toulese Lautrec should get the run of the race and put the writing on the wall last start. He loves a firm surface and likes rolling off Caulfield's big bends, he looks back. Back these two straight out for a result. Let go of Magnetic, he will have his work cut out from back in the field. Danny Brereton is a neutral rider and that can cost you at Caulfield as assertive riders tend to get the job done alot better, especially in his likely circumstances. He's third best and well worth risking if you bet that way.

Race 2 :

Potting another likely short favourite in this Rubiscent. Likely to start very short but you'll be be brave to take it. Get's back, drawn inside and needs momentum to produce his best...good luck. Again a few better for mine. I have Aftershock, Expunge and Starzando in front of him. Ollie has legged off Yolo and jumped on Aftershock for this one - I'm taking that as a good lead and putting him on top, Yolo was ok first up. Has won four from ten in NZ and this looks reasonably weak. Expunge has always been a favourite of mine, and has great first up form. He can use the one barrier and add value to multiple bets in this. I thought Starzando ran on well from an awkward position at the Valley recently, should improve on top of the ground and 1600m is within it's grasp. They are the three then Rubiscent. He won a good race last start, but Newitt was hard at work on him to get him going, there might be a few more bums to get past here and can't see him justifying the likely short quote. A tricky race but can see the left fielders dominating.

Race 3 :

I think there is two standouts in the Vain and perhaps a little smoky down the bottom of the weights who can make it interesting. Diplomatic Force is my top rater. Heck this horse is impressive. Crushed them early with big weights then ran into a very good one in Emjay Hussey conceeding it a heap of weight and enduring a wide run on that occassion but still finished within a length. Went to Adealaide in a very strong sprint event over there and almost walked away with the win. Here he get's a little concession off the Autumn stars and has a run under his belt. I think I've talked myself into it...he looks a good bet to me. He's biggest threat I believe is Murtajill. Probably the most speedy and precocious 2yo in Sydney. All his runs have been top class and expect him to win or run second. Third best I'm making Green Mankini. Was very taken with his run at Werribee behind Zilzaal. Should be able to sit right on the speed and make a real nuisance of himself in the straight. He will be the value horse in this.

Race 4 :

I like Bel Mer in this. Was beaten last start by probably the most talented 2yo going around in Royal Asscher. Arguably had a tougher run to the line too than her on that day and was less than half a length away. Newitt looks to have a really good association with her, he can ride her where he likes. That looks important in this race, where I don't like the barrier draws of some of the fancied ones. For second best I'm sticking with the tried and true Caulfield type in Rose Ceremony. She'll be the one putting the pressure on in this race at the turn. What she lacks in red-line ability she makes up for in heart. The seven draw is perfect for her...to apply some pressure. She'll be hard to beat. Next best is the slipper winner Forensics. Hard to really know if she'll be torched to be ready for this. Her best runs where at the end of her last campaign. Don't like the one draw. Can't see her being hussled out of the barriers to take up a position like they did on her in the Slipper first up. Likely to get back and run on.

Race 5 :

Trust the maligned ones in this! I think there are four horses who are capable of taking it out. Speedy Rossa, Blue Grouse, Bella Princess, Wily Carol are the horses I'm trying to split. Blue Grouse I have settled on as the top rater. A few will make the leap that its a wet tracker as a way of explaining it's flop at Bendigo when yo go thrugh the form. It's had a win and a second on top of the ground however and I'm erring on the side of abberation to account for that run. Excellent win realing in Parchie and before that was given too much of a task to catch the flying Soverign Miss. Can see it getting the run of the race and to me looks the one to beat. I was taken by Speedy Rossa first up. Generally her worst runs are first-up but she looked full of life hitting the line in behind them. Speedy will be really hard to run down, prefers wide barriers too and Caulfield 1400m is her go. Next best is Wily Carol. I think it will pay to forgive that first up run. I've seen her run rather ordinary at Sandown before and come out and dominate at it's next start...Newitt has stuck with her...don't treat her lightly. The other one that has a winning hope is Bella Princess. Got a feeling it's found a length and with a favourable draw for it should be right there at the end of this. Was luckless last start after braining them at Geelong.

Race 6 :

Back Apache Cat in the Listion. Marasco will just ensure that he is a price. Marasco looks like the only one who can be competitive with Apache Cat on talent. I'm one of those who believe Marasco's a bit soft though. And can't see him running down Apache Cat in a hard run 1400m affair at Caulfield second up. We saw how the Apache deals with softies last time out when Haradasun had him in his sights over 1200m...Bye Bye Harada! Hopefully we will get flip of the coin or a touch better. Apache is a bull and does his best work 1400m at Caulfield. He'll win. Marasco will likely run on into second. And I'm going for the import Blue Monday to run a bit of race for third. Looked great in a recent trial at Flemington. Might be suited by a hot speed too. Then Maldivian.

Race 7:

Should be in front at this point and why not roll it into Blitzem Reilly. Has been looking for an inside draw where he can use his explosive speed and get a breather. Should be able to do that from one, after the scratching, and with a few slouches drawn around him in low draws. From there things should be controlled with Minson and Monahan Tweed likely to take up the speed with him. He can take a sit if the others go hard out in front. Either way the low draw is a huge plus. Excellent runs so far even the horse he beat at Sale by six lengths "Toolern Joe" is not rubbish. Well documented how good his Valley runs were. Suggest a bet on Blitzem. Hardest to beat - Stanzout. He'll be primed second up, look out for him. Then a gap too Archie Senior, Chiack, and Mr Baritone who look the run-on place hopes.

Race 8:

Finally a real race eight to stick your teeth into! Universal Queen, Causeway Lass, Oxigenada are the big hands in this and look like dominating if the UQ and O are wound up enough first up. No great reason why they shouldn't be. Causeway Lass eachway is the way to go for me however. I concede the other two at their best may be half a length better than her, but as a rule I don't back mares first up (that's treated me well in the past - no point changing). That said, I can find a heap of reasons to tip the other two. Universal Queen will get the run of the race in this, drawn low and those around her are unlikely to speed with her and use the barrier. Should get a soft run and therefore will be hard to beat in this. They are likely to back her off the map though. Oxigenada will be seen for the first time. Scared of her, put her in somewhere of your thoughts. Go with Causeway Lass the safeway home.

Check out Pre-Post Liston, Premier Stakes & Caulfield/Melbourne Cup betting below

Tim's Top Raters

Apache Cat and Diplomatic Force my best bets this week.

Cheers Tim.