Racing Analysis

Caulfield

Exclusive Report 12th January

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

Khayyam is the selection in the first. The weight looks criticial in this in comparing it with the topweight Ista Kareem, Our Spur etc. I think Ista Kareem might need just one more especially with such a large weight concession to certain handy horses on the minimum. Our Spur is the dangerous one because he will probably get a soft lead, and on that count and his general ability he should be the hardest to beat. But I have the Moroney horse just in front of him. Beat a decent field comfortably at Sale, then has been more than competitive when stepped up in to City grade. Without going overboard, he is the tip from Our Spur and The Fonz who is starting to repay owners.

Race 2 :

Guessing a little here but going for El Duce who was a solid winner last start. Georgia's Boy who will get back but is expected to run on is second best. She made ground up the wrong part of the track last start and the extra distance is bound to suit. Next best the Freedman 3yo. Grecian Choice.

Race 3 :

Great to see Moonboat finally break through last start. Followers had to be patient as he couldn't quite convert his promise into a listed win in his Sydney early 2yo career. He did race without a bit of luck, it must be said. Perhaps connections wanted to test there horse first up by setting it to the lead in an effort to put his luckless first campaign behind them. That they did and a win followed. With his tail up he might be one to follow and he should handle this lot. Moonboat worth a bet in this. Bundle O Gold deserves to be respected, based on his consistency and ability to put himself in a race and give himself every chance. He will be hard to beat. Brazen Hussey is next best. Likely to lead and should still have enough in the tank you' think in the last piece to be highly competitive.

Race 4 :

While on face value Itsamonty had every reasonable chance last start, I don't think that was his best performance and he really races well this track and distance. Last campaign this horse came of age, and by no means this time in has he looked back. Horses like Larson and Cocinero should provide pretty good carts in the race so he loses nothing on the shape of the race. I like him and I think he can improve on that last start third. Larson and Cargo Cult for mine are the next best. Can see Larson leading and giving a really cheeky kick with a minumum weight. This is his distance and he is right at the top of his game. Game effort last start too in Saturday company. Cargo Cult is flying, the only negative for him is that the conditions are likely to be extreme and this horse has leg issues - where it's practically bone on bone for him. That's the inside mail, so these hard tracks are not ideal. But he's racing too well to ignore so I have him third best. Cocinero I am happy to sidestep here, he's only tiny and over a distance that he struggles with and with a large impost, only the brave should back him.

Race 5:

On face value some will be dissapointed with Here De Angels Spring campaign. But if you consider the horse a very good one up to 1100m on simple tracks and that's all, he has nothing to be ashamed with in his performances in top grade over unsuitable trips last campaign. He's a good gamble in this, Freedman will know that his best runs occur while fresh and over simple course and distance...he will have him ready for this. The four draw is excellent, very flexible he can lead or take a sit and still be effective...definitely the way to go eachway. Let Go Thommo is second best, has the form, fitness and can finish off a race. Lucky Secret is third best and I think a risk. Drawn three is a tough one I figure. To be serious about winning...he needs to be ridden for speed (which he has) and hold the rail. That's a bit of an ask though for a horse who is returning from leg issues and jarring and disappointing up the straight, and with a neutral jockey in charge...D Brereton as well compounds the problem. A jockey who doesn't like to hustle his horses along. Only third best for mine.

Race 6 :

I like the middle numbers in this. 6,7,8,4 to be exact. Offenbach is a real racehorse and that's why he's the tip here. Last campaign he sat and outsprinted them at Ballarat over this distance with ease, had everything go wrong with the saddle slipping at Sandown, and was caught in the wrong part of the track in the Warrnambool Cup when finishing a close up fifth. All runs had merit, and he's come back swinging. From eight and with a few natural leaders I think he can position himself handy enough and yet not have to work too hard. While he might be set for bigger things down the track there is no reason why he cant pick up this one on the way. You Sexy Boy is second best. The race should suit him with good speed in front and from six he shouldn't be too worse than midfield that he can't win. Definite threat highly suited in this. Next best is Parchie who's a pretty good horse and should be running on as well. Hard to see him winning if he gets too far back which is in issue drawn eleven, but should still be thereabouts wherever he lobs.

Race 7:

Mistake Creek is a best bet here. While as a racehorse she doesn't stand out like others will this year, this race is very very suitable. Her biggest threats are awkwardly drawn for there racing styles. Amarazetti 10, Lots of Thanks 1. While Mistake Creek should camp right on Asshewaqua and Aprisa who will bring her into the race nicely. Other factors in her favour is that she tends to show her best once she has had a few runs and 1100m Caulfield generally is her best Course and Distance. So a combination of a good horse, set to win, with her biggest threats have there work cut out add up to a best bet. La Famelia is next best...she goes pretty well and will enjoy the racing room. Asshewaqua is third best, a tough little filly who should get a softish lead.

Race 8:

Perfect Feeling was a listed 3yo winner in Australia, and a promising one at that before she was sent to Hong Kong in search of bigger riches. Without knowing too much details she left our shores a good horse and has lost none of that from viewing it's first up winning performance recently at Sandown. The best thing about her winning chances also here are that Wavelength may yet be a run away, but might be forced to use that inside draw anyhow and Pintsize who is promising but first up and unfortunately drawn the outside gate so she will get a mile back one would figure first up and with a liking to come off the speed.

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