Racing Analysis

Flemington

Exclusive Report 13th October

VRC Upcoming Events

Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

Not keen on the first. Incumbent I guess if it looks ready to win. Goes well at Caulfield and this is not overly strong. Green Mankini might get a soft run of Zizou. Those three would be the ones I'd look at in the first, but you don't need to be excused for letting this one slide.

Race 2 :

Archie Senior eachway Is probably the way to go in this but I think there is enough to suggest Sonic Quest might just win again. There looks to be a little bit of speed in the race with Mind Your Head engaged so thinks she should break up enough for Sonic Quest to utilise the one draw. He does concede a little bit of weight but over 1400m it's not significant enough to go against him. He's my top rater terrific win first up, distance rise in his favour and he's the best horse in the race. Archie Senior eachway is a good bet if you don't want to jump on SQ. I like him now he's had a few fitness finders and a small freshen. They've taken the right road with him given that he raced a little bit in the winter. He loves Caulfield 1400m and this shouldnt be run too hard to take him out of it.

Race 3 :

Little Arrow is the one I fancy in the Thoroughbred Stakes. Nikolic on is a plus, the draw in five is good, a decent speed all look to play into her hands. Last start at the Valley she resented the slow speed and being caught on the rail, so forget that run she over-raced terribly. She needs to deliver today and I think she can, her biggest dangers have there work cut out based on the barrier draws. And they include Chinchilla Rose and Vivacious Spirit. Chinchilla Rose is probably better drawn wide but will have to be great to beat Little Arrow who will get a softer run, Vivacious Spirit drawn one looks awkward for it as it get's back. I still think it's good enough to run a place. The combination then of her biggest threats with tasks and everyting in Little Arrow's favour makes her a best bet.

Race 4 :

Gold Edition is going to be very hard to beat in this. However, the shorter the distance the more exposed she is to something outsprinting her...enter Royal Asscher. This will be a very good each way bet in this. They will go like the wind and Gold Edition will force a path for Royal Asscher to slipstream into. Gold Edition will be worse than even money so by default then Royal Asscher will be eachway odds...thank you very much...this is a load up each-way then. Everything is in Royal Asscher's favour and I urge you to back her eachway. Stands out like dogs balls.

Race 5:

Wow great race this one. Miss Finland will win though. Biggest dangers will be in front of it and that's what she likes something to chase. While she'll be short if you see 1.70 or better she is well worth it. Terrific run last start pushed wide all the way, still had the temerity to run on. She's fantastic she will win. Maldivian will give her a race. He is at the top of his game and will ensure Miss Finland's best. He'll go close and perhaps Rubiscent can run another bold race. There should be reasonable enough speed in this which will allow him to show off his best strength and that is his toughness.

Race 6 :

Divine Madonna looks a good bet in this. Not much speed in this but Bon Hoffa will go pretty early as he needs to be wound up can see Divine Madonna getting the great cart in to this race off him and being to good in the run to the line. Am I making it sound easy today? Well it is. This is a punter's dream this card. Divine Madonna will win Bon Hoffa and Wonderful World will fight over the minors. Wonderful World was a terrific run last start and being a gross horse expect him to go on with it over his favourite course and distance.

Race 7:

The Caufield Guineas. Ok. Weekend Hussler is a freak and probably two to three lengths better than these... however. He's only slight chinque is that he takes a little while to wind up, not much but needs a 100m and then he goes terrific. Having watched Jockeys closely for years now, I will bet you that Damien Oliver on Marching will come across on Marching from twelve and try and hold Weekend Hussler in if it doesn't lead. I suspect it won't lead because there are a number of horses who will push foward because that is there best chance in the race. Marching is in that book too she can't win this off the pace, needs to be better than midfield so Ollie will kill two birds with one stone here. Just watch he's a master at it. As much as Id like to tip you the Hussler I won't I'm pretty sure of what will happen in the race with a big field if it doesn't lead. Im going for Pit Lane as the best each way bet in the race. I suggested to go around him at Flemington and I was right, drawn one, enough speed, has the blinkers on, he's a great bet in this and with all the jockeying in front of him I think he can slip up on the rails and knock them all out. Or at least if Weekend Hussler finds a gap run a great second. Each way Pit Lane, very suited to Caulfield. There's been money for Pit Lane at long odds all week lets hope we get decent ones on the day. Marching third best.

Race 8:

This is the one of the races I don't really like. In saying that I think you can narrow it down to two. Master O'Reilly and Lazer Sharp. I favour Master O'Reilly just but perhaps a win bet on both might be the way to go. I'm not super keen on Master O'Reilly at Caulfield (Marginally). But one of the two will win. Lazer Sharp was unlucky first up and wasn't too bad last start. Expect to see something from him now. He was outstanding over this distance in the Autumn and has a big turn of foot and relaxes nice. Dolphin Jo's form at this distance is good enough for him to thereabouts and I rate him third best in this.

Race 9:

Field! It's tough the last and perhaps the way to go for quaddie punters and big multiple players. The four I like the most are Storm Signal, Guild, Juste Momente and Goldfield Ashes. I like the first two more as far as ability is concerned and I think the race will suit Juste Momente and Goldfield Ashes. Storm Signal was competitive enough last start and drops back in grade, this suits can still be competitive even if forced a touch wide. Guild was a super run last start, not sure if this suits but has to be put in. I rate her the most. Juste Momente is hard to follow but will like the hot speed and the good draw, and Goldfield Ashes has come back well and can handle most things thrown at it...the most flexible of the four.

Tim's Top Raters

Little Arrow and Royal Asscher are best bets.