Racing Analysis

Posted Thursday's Available after 6:30 pm

Caulfield

Exclusive Report 20th July

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

Pennycome Quick was a good a third as you'll get last start. Caught in an awkward position at the top of the straight it had to dive up the inside to get into the race, in so doing hitting an inferior surface to the winner and runner-up leading to his game defeat. Expecting him to hit back hard in this. Penny to win and beat the top two Allervite and Bianco Luici. Very confident that Pennycome Quick will run a big race suggesting to back her eachway and as a best bet.

Race 2 :

Awakening Dream produced a win of some quality at Ballarat. While he was pretty green on that occassion and gave Therese Payne a difficult ride. The experience of that run should see a more mature horse here and one hard to beat in his age group. Monocracy carried a decent weight running second recently at Sandown it hasn't paid much for that good run and should be considered again as a threat in this. Grand Destiny third best, and Diminuendo a sneaky hope as it had to come from an awkward spot at Ballarat when finishing behind the placegetters, it gives the impression of a stayer.

Race 3 :

Not a big fan of this race! Do you trust Sentire to do the job again or do you see more coming from females Joontoo Gemini and Judgement Justified. This is a tough one. Have to go with him in this as I don't see the other two winning a Saturday race at this stage, but in saying that there honesty should drive them close again in this. Sentire won clearly on a really soggy track last start but before that had good form around the better stayers going around. This is as weak as you'll get so it should go close in this. Joontoo Gemini was outgunned last start but is still at her peak, I think she has another good run in her, and I'm giving Judgement Justified another chance. Sandown might not be her track and the rails run last start didn't look favourable. Out wide she might be able to sit up on the speed and make an impact earlier in the race with her light weight, similar to her run a few starts ago at the provincials.

Race 4 :

Moxies Jewel was well fancied last start and lost a weaker race but I fancy her in this. Was desperate on the line after not seeing much daylight in the run till right at the death, a very nice run. Before that strolled in strongly at Sandown. This is not overly tough she should sweep down the centre of the track and be hard to beat. Following her into it should be Red Jesteress. Loves the wet and fires when she can make one run at them. Should get that from her wide draw so look for her late. Next best is the top weight on spec...Magistra Delecta. Has credentials against some good ones i New Zealand which makes it good enough to be a threat in a weak race.

Race 5 :

Dane Empire first up should we take the risk? This is not super strong and I have less fear about good middle distance horses being able to run well fresh. I think he's a big threat in this but making Magnetic the top rater. Nothing made up ground in the Championship final so I'm prepared to forgive that sixth. Had excuses before that too, while they are racking up this one does look winnable so going with Magnetic. Dane Empire is too good to go around. Has never seen a wet track, got a feeling though he will get through it ok. And third best is Incentate. Going well and looms as a big chance in this one.

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Race 6 :

Vormista is the one you really need to watch in this one, and if you see anything above 4-1 I say launch into her eachway. Had to come from a difficult spot last start to win in Adelaide but did it with aplomb. Lucky Secret will be in it all the way and be the hardest to beat. He got through his first ever really wet track race last start with flying colours, some experts suggest he didn't handle it but I thought the last 100m was more about the toughness of the Sandown straight than a failure to handle the surface. He travelled on the bit brilliantly. Stanzout is third best. His best runs are fresh, flies at Caulfield and loves the wet. Forgive his poor finish to last campaign. Should be running on.

Race 7:

Caprizzi Strip can control this one and make it two on end. Has taken a while to come to hand this campaign but now that he's struck a win he should be able to go on with it. Nothing looks a threat here. I'm forgiving Brilliant Lad's failure last start on an extreme track at Mornington. Before that showed a fair bit behind Lucky Secret. Can sprint quickly off a slow pace and might be able to track Caprizzi into this. Bird Dancer is next best. Going well enough to win this, however will get back from nine and find it hard to win in a sit and sprint. Third best and place only.

Race 8:

Heartbreak race eight this looks no different. Adaptor has been a standout performer but you get the feeling that a few of these will be suited by the time this race rocks around as they tend to win from back and out wide at this stage. Prospect and Zzyzx are at the forefront of my mind for that occurence and to a lesser extent Exalation, Laxaar and Encroacher. If there is a serious bias I favour Prospect but if the track is playing fair then going with Adaptor. Terrific win last start solidfying his vein of form at the moment. Next best is Prospect who made up ground last start against the pattern of that sit and sprint affair. Had been knocking on the door before that effort so can draw on a little bit for this. Zzyzx is third best. Should have won last start, but for a poor ride. Will run into this stylishly outwide and should threaten for a cheque.

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Tim's Top Raters

Pennycome Quick and Vormista should be eachway odds and therefore loom as great best bet prospects. They are this weeks best bets.

Best of Luck,

Cheers Tim.

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