Racing Analysis

Posted Thursday's Available after 6:30 pm

Final tips on Tommorrow's racing as seen on the home page provided after 6:30 pm the day before.

Caulfield: Melbourne

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Race 1:

Last time La Chasseuse came to Caulfield she started very short and was a bit dissapointing. She raced a little green on that occassion and hopefully her extra race experience and maturity will help her get over the line her as this looks winnable. Her dangers look to be those up in the weights. Pantenny seems to have found its right distance at 1200m, and you have to respect a horse that rates 15 or so points above the next horse in the race. And carrying such a credential is the topweight La Italia. These are the three, other notes I can add to this race is that Whitehaven Girls finish last start was flattering as it had plenty of time to wind up, and Gorgeous Greta had things made to order at Ballarat, I preferred the run of the third horse.

Race 2 :

It just so happens I'm going for horses drawn the rail here with Fidemus likely to take this field on and will run it hard. Soverign Miss I'm making the top rater. All of her runs back have been top rate, even her last start third was encouraging. She is strong and if she can rail up here she will be hard to toss. Benko I'm making second best, she will be big odds but should enjoy what may unfold here with the speed on and a cosy run on the inside. It should be noted that she got knocked about at important times on it's last run and tried hard after that. With more luck and if she puts her best foot forward she's the value. Wildcoast is one to consider for multiples. Rightly we steered around her last start but with the one draw, an ability to stick about on high speed and no weight she can figure again. I like Diamond Cove but this might be too much second up and Apolina is going best of all but the possibility of being caught deep in a fast run race is not appealing.

Race 3 :

Okay Oky gets its chance to put another win on the board. Not much it could do last start with little speed on and having to chase a very smart one in Art House. Might not have to perform such miracles to win here. The obvious might be the way to go here in looking for dangers. Antidotes had a few things against when making a run at Sandown, and with form at this track I suggest it will be the hardest to beat. The other one to consider and third best is Nediyms Glow who is pretty classy and likes Caulfield.

Race 4 :

While Diplomatic Force was highly impressive last start going with it all the way to the line was Masked Assasin. In the process spacing the rest. Up in distance and weight for Diplomatic Force while Masked Assasin grabs a weight concession. I think this might be the difference. One of the two though should win the race all things equal, I'm putting Masked Assasin on top and suggest and eachway bet can be thought of. Xaardante is next best but might be worth taking on. Won extremely well last start but alot the Xaars find an extra leg in the wet and it looked that way last start. On top of the ground it might not be as effective.

Race 5 :

I think so far as winning hopes are concerned you can narrow this one down to the top two and perhaps Kendalay for something from left field. Hassle had to give significant weight to and chase Rhombus Lad last start. There is no Rhombus Lad in this field and the track should be firm enough to its liking. He can win the topweight, the next best is Just the Part. Has done everything right this campaign. The trainer suggested it would be cherry ripe third up so here he is. Good horse Just the Part and will chase well if they go hard. The other one to consider is Kendalay. He's been going ok in unsuitable races and steps up to a race with no weight with a pretty good chance. Remember he took care of some good 3yos over this course and distance last campaign. If your taking a big trifecta or something exotic I would also include Baughurst, Mojo Pin and Don't Stop as they have place chances.

Race 6 :

Don't like this race I have issues with just about every runner. If Solvini is a jump and run horse I would like to be on it, I've scoured the net to see how she goes about it but havent come up with much. Go with her if thats the case, if not perhaps back the honest Straight Legs who will appreciate the firmer surface. Third best Picket Fence.

Race 7:

I'll concede that Live In Vain looks very hard to beat in this. He beat a better field last start and after the claim races here with 55.5kg. I think the horses that can genuinely challenge him are Hillston Exchange and Pavlova. Hillston Exchange because he is strong at the end of 1400m and has shown recently he can do it away from Flemington, and Pavlova. She trailed off last campaign but perhaps that was a result of racing rather soon after campaigning in Brisbane. She's been allowed a decent freshen starting after the Autumn carnival and I like that. I also like how she goes about it at Caulfield which really suits her. With Live in Vain blinding along she could be the one chasing and coming out of the pack to make it nervous in the last 100m. She'll be big odds but I suggest to work her into your thoughts if you can afford too.

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Race 8:

Jonny Be Good, Our Raphael and Delvecchio look to be the main chances in the last. Johnny Be Good did really well in good grade last start and might get another rather relaxed run up on the speed. Should be better for that run. This is not overly strong so it's hard to ignore types who have winning form around this distance so on that count you should include Our Raphael. Skipped away from a big field at Sandown last start and looked ok in doing it. Hard to have much else so making Delvecchio third best who has a touch of class. Happy to go around You Sexy Boy who is one paced and gets back and will need a miracle from barrier one.

Tim's Top Raters

Best bets are Masked Assasin and Tillikea. Masked Assasin should be very hard to hold in the 2yo and hopefully we will get an each-way price. The other one is Tillikea who was scratched at Bendigo on thursday and is running in an easier race at Seymour on Saturday. She looked good last start chasing after Gorgeous Greta and hopefully with a bit more speed on can have more luck at Seymour. Suggest to back her each way too.

Tim McDonnell